Quote:
Originally Posted by suchwinmuchprofit
I'm reading a poker theory book that has a chart with optimal calling frequency vs different bet sizes in a toy game where you know you have 50% equity. (Play Optimal Poker, Ch2, part 8).
It's saying that if someone overbets 100x pot (with a bluffing frequency approaching 50%), that it's correct to call 1/101 times. How can this be the case? If you have 50% equity, wouldn't it correct to call any overbet every time, since the odds can never be worse than 1:1?
Your equity is approaching 50%, not exactly 50%. Actually assuming there are no blocker effects, your EV in calling should be 0, same as folding. But if we call less than 1/101 times, our opponent can auto profit vs us by bluffing 50% of the time or more. If we call more often than that, our opponent should never bluff us.
In practice it is more of a situation of ebbs and flows. We don't always need to be perfect in figuring our if our opponent is underbluffing or overbluffing to decide to call or not when it's close. We call sometimes to prevent being exploited. When it's close we might use some randomization method to call sometimes.
In reality in those situations our opponent is probably either underbluffing or overbluffing, so the right answer is probably either call or fold, but in practice we might not know exactly where our opponent is with their bluffing frequency. We do know that if we overfold, a good opponent can eventually exploit us by overbluffing, and if we overcall, a good opponent can exploit us by eventually underbluffing. So it makes sense to try to defend at a frequency around MDF vs good opponents who might exploit us if we don't when we don't have a clear exploitative approach to a spot on whether our opponent is imbalanced.