EDIT: I mean 852 two tone and 754 two tone!
I am very curious about these two outputs. The ranges are the same and the boards seem similar. Yes, BB has six combos of 65s on 974 but it has 4 combos of 43s on 852. BB has 6 combos of 86s and 76s.
While the 30% Cbet sizing frequencies are almost the same (34-35% of the time), UTG checks far less on 852 (42% of the time compared to 56%).
This is because UTG does a 150% overbet 23% of the time instead of 10% (48 combos instead of 22). Why is there such a big difference?
On both boards, sets are overbet a minority of the time, and top pair 17% to 20% of the time. But:
- Overpairs are overbet far more on 852 - 17% of the time or 6 combos compared to 1 combo. There are 36 combos of overpairs instead of 30 on a 9 high instead of an 8 high board, but 99 is bet infrequently anyway (0.7 out of 6 combos, all of them with a spade.) The real difference is in AA-KK, which get overbet 33% of the time instead of 7% and QQ which gets overbet 22% of the time instead of never.
- Flush draws get an overbet 38% of the time compared to 23% (7.5 combos to 4.5)
- Overcards also get an overbet 38% of the time compared to 10% (33 to 12). Some of this is the FDs above, but we have a similar number of those. It's also hands like AQo, AJo, ATo, QJo being bet far more whether or not they have a BD draw.
- 2 card BD flush draws are overbet 14% of the time rather than 4% (3 to 1)
- In total it's 49 combos to 22.
Could it be how BB reacts to the overbet? When I look at BB reaction, we see a lot of folding on 852 - 62% of the time. But it's 63% on 974. The raise and call frequencies are virtually identical, too. Either way, they never fold their two pair, sets or (almost never) flush draws and they fold a lot of the rest.
So what explains such a big overbet frequency? Tombos's excellent article on flop overbets didn't quite explain it here for me, as his explanations work about as well on either board.
https://blog.gtowizard.com/overbetti...in-cash-games/ I would be very interested in some theories.
Last edited by Tomalak2Pi; 01-11-2024 at 03:28 PM.