Let me share some recent solver data on multiway dynamics (2.5x RFI, NL500 rake structure).
BB EV Delta (BU Flat)
When CO opens and BTN flats (versus CO opens and folds through), here's how BB's EV changes:
Key findings:
- Only pocket pairs gain EV multiway
- Everything else loses EV
- AK shows the biggest EV decline
Note: This measures overcall EV, though many hands aren't actually overcalling (AA squeezes, 72o folds)
BB EV Delta (SB Flat)
How does relative position change things? Here's what happens when SB is the cold-caller instead of BTN:
Changes:
- Same pattern: only pocket pairs gain EV
- Overall EV impact is less severe
- Many hands stay the same EV
Important Note:
These charts show EV
differences between multiway and heads-up, not absolute EV. A hand showing "less negative" EV multiway might still be unprofitable - it's just losing less than heads-up.
Theory vs Reality at Low/Mid Stakes:
While GTO suggests Ax suited loses value multiway, there's good reason they overperform in practice at lower stakes:
- Recreational players tend to overplay non-nut flushes
- Creates better implied odds for flush-over-flush than GTO assumes
- Similarly, pocket pairs likely exceed GTO expectations due to set-mining value against opponents who struggle to fold worse pairs
This lines up with the Upswing advice to favor pocket pairs and Ace-x suited multiway, and explains why these hands might perform even better in practice than pure theory suggests.