Re:chess. I am an international master with 30 years of experience in trying to improve at chess while making a living with poker.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan
From what I understand there are hundreds if not thousands of openings available to the currently top rated human players.
I'd imagine at least a few of those, if not quite a lot, would be capable of forcing a win with white in a GTO match.
Well, the top engines are so good nowadays that the openings have evolved a lot even in the past 10 years. Knowledge in every sensible opening has grown so big that I'd describe it as a bluff if someone plays an opening that leads to a clearly worse position, assuming best play by both sides. Chess is an extremely drawish game (because it's a draw, duh) and it usually takes several small mistakes or one big mistake to actually lose. Humans lose because they make a lot of mistakes, same as in poker.
All in all, I'd say a tiny portion of modern openings might be winning for white with best play, but we are talking about 1% or so. Of course also depends a bit on what we define as an opening. But lets say positions after 12 moves that have arisen more than twice in the past 3 years between top players.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan
I think chess GTO would be similar, as in a lot of equal options being chosen at random, because they all lead to the same result.
But like I said, I'm bad at chess.
Yes, the starting position is a draw, but even if you had a perfect solution, all moves leading to a draw are not equal. Some drawn positions are such that one side needs to make 10 exact moves in a row to get the draw while the other side has no legal moves that lose the game. Thus I think it's better to assess chess positions not with "white wins, draw, black wins" but with something that describes the equity both players have. For humans, this is, perfect play vs perfect play is not interesting as it's always a draw.
Quote:
Originally Posted by plexiq
I think the chess comparison is kind of flawed as we are comparing a perfect information game vs imperfect information. Mixing is most likely required in poker GTO, in chess it is definitely purely optional.
Agreed. In chess top players mix, because they don't want to be predictable, but instead test the opponent's knowledge in a different branch of the game tree. Thus mixing is great in practice, but has no meaning in theory.