Quote:
Originally Posted by gobble gobble
One consequence you should run into is where villains call with entire range, your bet size does not matter for your model and you run break even. ...
One fear many players have when trying to steal/squeeze is getting called by "wild" players who will "call with anything".
So, I decided to create a model to see how this plays out and I was surprised!!!
Here is the situation.
HERO
Hero has tightened up his range and instead of squeezing with ATC, he is now squeezing with 66-AA, and Broadway cards JT-AK (range is 16.6%)
VILLAINS
-SIX Villains are strict ABC players who will only call a squeeze with TT-AA, AT-AK (range is 7%)
-TWO Villains are super gambooolers who love the thrill of big pots and will call a squeeze with 54s+, 64s+, 98o+, Ax, Kxs, 22+ (range is 40%)
MODEL ASSUMPTIONS (same as post #8):
Hero will squeeze and if called, equity applies. The model will step through a series of bets, for the purpose of modeling, each bet/squeeze can be considered an all-in. Unfortunately, modeling postflop play would be near impossible so the equity is a straight evaluation preflop. Despite this limitation, the model should be fairly accurate in terms of determining +EV trends. Lastly, in terms of squeezing, you can use your intuition to match what you would "squeeze" in a certain situation and then match that up to the model...
Lastly, a "straddle" is when the UTG player (Hero) bets 2bb in the dark and gets last action. So 5 limpers means pot is 12bb by the time it gets back to Hero and Hero squeezes...
Below are the models based on the above assumptions
CONCLUSIONS:
In a word, WOW!!! When I first saw the results I almost didn't believe it and I completely tore my model apart and put it back together and empirically stepped through the simulations but they held up. But then once I really stepped back and thought about it, it makes sense. If we are shoving with a semi-decent range and we got two gambooolers willing to get it in with a much wider range, then we should be ahead. Similarly, when we are up against "solid" ABC players who are only calling a squeeze with AT-AK, TT+ this means that they end up folding 80% of the time. Thus, Majority of the time we are either stealing the limps or being heads up against players whose ranges we crush.
Last edited by dgiharris; 05-30-2012 at 06:17 PM.