The Bad News
After reviewing the data more, I think you can't conclude anything about how often they fold to a raise, unfortunately.
River:
It looks like most of your fold-to-raise data is taken from the times BB overbets turn, then downbets river. Almost all of your data is taken from the times they bet less than pot on the river:
The weighted average of bet sizes that faced a raise (highlighted) is around half-pot. Unfortunately, these smaller bets' range construction looks much more merged compared to OB. There's no reason to assume their folding after overbetting a polar range would be similar to these smaller bet sizes. Furthermore, you don't know how often each of these bet sizes faced the raise, so you can't accurately work out the average bet size on the river to deconstruct this grouped stat.
To find fold% here you'd probably need to expand your filters to include more data, perhaps looking at all OOP PFC spots taking a similar line, then filter for the fold frequency by bet and raise size.
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Turn data suffers the same problem. This isn't showing you how often they overbet turn then fold to a raise, it's showing you how often they bet turn for
any size then fold to a raise. That's a problem.
Here's the table for Alpha of 3x-4x raise after betting any size between 1/4 pot and 5x pot: as you can see, the Alpha varies between 38% and 77%. So it's hard to say if they're overfolding here.
The best way to do it would be to filter the data for fold-vs-raise after 150% turn probe, or some group like turn probe 130%-160%.
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The Good News
It does appear that the X-OB-OB line is very over-bluffed, and you don't need any further data to see that. Focus on what you know. You can't be sure if they're overfolding to a raise, but you can be pretty confident that they're bluffing too much.
You could try some very gnarly exploits here like calling down far too many static bluff-catchers lol. Idk exactly what hand classes these color-codes correspond to, but this is just far too bluffy by any reasonable definition of "weak hands".
Last edited by tombos21; 01-16-2024 at 05:09 PM.