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Pot Odds in Tournament Play Pot Odds in Tournament Play

02-12-2009 , 05:42 PM
I figure this should be a fundamental concept yet I’m a bit confused as a beginner. I would appreciate anyone helping me out.

Does pot odds matter so much late in a MTT with high blinds when I know I’m behind? Let’s say I’m getting 3-1 immediate pot odds and I figure that my chance of winning is right around 2-1. I know that in a cash game it’s +EV to call. However, is this a good call to make in a late tournament?

The main confusion is that I read over and over again that I’m to call when it’s +EV even when behind, however, calling a hand I will lose 2 out of 3 times when every chip matters in late tournament seems like a reckless move.
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02-12-2009 , 06:17 PM
I'm not a tournament expert but I know what you're saying. The opposite is sometimes true also, that you should take a negative chip-ev gamble.

Making a +ev decision can be wrong if it keeps you from being able to make a MORE +ev decision in the near future. That is, pushing small edges in a tournament could be a bad idea if it prevents you from having chips a few hands later where you could push a much larger margin.

On the flip side you can sometimes take a gamble as a dog, if not doing so would (probably) require you to make a worse gamble. Like say you have 15 blinds or something like that and you end up 10 blinds in the pot. Your opponent moves all in and you figure the pot odds are such that it's -cEV for you to call. Your alternative is probably going to be open-raising all in with something kinda crappy within the next dozen hands, though, so taking this gamble now can be correct.

Taking either concept too far is a bad idea. As long as you're properly bankrolled there is another tournament just around the corner.

When I do play tournaments, I tend to fold when I feel either folding or calling is somewhere between 0ev and maybe a small bit +ev. Exceptions come from cases when later in the hand I will be able to make very +ev bets but avoid making very -ev bets or calls. Like say I have a flush draw and little else, and I figure based on the bet size that calling or folding is neutral. I can call, because chances are good that if I hit, I'll get more money in and if I don't I can fold. Say I have another hand with very similar odds to win, but this time it's, say, top pair 2nd kicker. Now I probably won't be able to value bet a future street easily, AND I probably will either get suckered into making more calls, or folding the best hand.

Ok that's just a long winded way of saying, I will take small neutral to +ev gambles in a hand IF I feel I'll definitely be able to play future streets correctly, and I'll fold if I feel that I won't be able to.
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02-13-2009 , 06:02 AM
This fundamental concept was discussed in "Kill Everyone"; the authors called the "bubble factor". It is connected to payout structures and the independent chip model (ICM). Using that model you can show that the chips you lose are worth more than the chips you gain when you win a draw. Hence in tournaments (unless you are far from the money) you need better pot odds to call than you would need in a cash game.
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02-13-2009 , 10:39 AM
cEV is not always the same as $EV - read about the concept called ICM to know when the two differ. The STT FAQ has a lot about ICM since cEV!=$EV on the bubble in a STT.
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02-13-2009 , 10:54 AM
cEV != $EV anywhere in a tournament, unless it is a winner-takes-all.
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02-13-2009 , 11:54 AM
to be short: you are much better off taking every, every +EV gamble you are offered.

the only exception to this is final table play, where you may want to fold in marginal (EV neutral, or slight EV situations), if you are likely to move up in prices.

one of the most common mistakes that beginner tournament players make (especially if they have experience in cash) is to avoid high risk or marginal plays, when you should learn to love these situations: it is the only way of making regular top 3 finishes; and thats where the money is.
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02-13-2009 , 12:35 PM
I'm not saying you should pass up +EV situation. I'm only saying that +cEV is not always +$EV, and you want to maximise the latter.
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02-13-2009 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMudd76
to be short: you are much better off taking every, every +EV gamble you are offered.
This in fact is one of the common beginner mistakes. I'll show with an extreme example. Three players, top two spots are entry into a big tourney (i.e. equal prizes). You and player2 have 10000 chips each, player3 has 100 chips. Blinds are 50/100 and player3 is in SB, you are in BB. Player2 on button moves all-in, player3 folds and you have AA.

To call here is clearly +cEV. However, it is also clearly -$EV. You should be able to do the math that shows this. You should also be able to do that math that show the point where calling here becomes $EV by changing the stack sizes and blinds.
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02-13-2009 , 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PantsOnFire
Three players, top two spots are entry into a big tourney (i.e. equal prizes). You and player2 have 10000 chips each, player3 has 100 chips. Blinds are 50/100 and player3 is in SB, you are in BB. Player2 on button moves all-in, player3 folds and you have AA.
i stated the only exception to this is final table play... the situation you are presenting is exactly that, but more extreme, a sattelite.

by the way, OP's post was about general MTT's, not sattelites.

Disregarding cEV != $EV is a much better approach for beginners (and for experienced players), because they (cEV and $EV) are very close in the tournament, untill you reach the final table.

the risk in giving any other advice, is that beginning players will be putting emphasis on false concepts like "tournament life" , and "waiting for a better spot" .

Last edited by MrMudd76; 02-13-2009 at 01:25 PM.
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02-13-2009 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMudd76
i stated the only exception to this is final table play... the situation you are presenting is exactly that, but more extreme, a sattelite.

by the way, OP's post was about general MTT's, not sattelites.

Disregarding cEV != $EV is a much better approach for beginners (and for experienced players), because they (cEV and $EV) are very close in the tournament, untill you reach the final table.

the risk in giving any other advice, is that players will be putting emphasis on false concepts like tournament survival, and waiting for a better spot.
Fair enough. But let me bring up the concept of tEV which is tournament EV but is usually $EV. I would say early in a tournament, cEV is pretty close to tEV. However, as you approach the bubble, this is not true any more. After you are in the money, again it is not so any more. And the usual result is that a +cEV move may not be +tEV.

However, there are also times where even -cEV can be +tEV. All of these need examples. I would make a -cEV move in a situation where I was a huge stack and had at least 10 times as many chips as a short stack who went all-in. If I have 1.7:1 calling odds and 2:1 hand odds, a call may be +tEV just because of the chance of eliminating that player.

It seems to me that your previous post was talking about early/mid tourney and coin flip situations or similar. That's just one valid strategy for tournaments where you try to build a big stack to go deep or bust out and start another tourney.

Edit: OP is talking about late in the tourney with high blinds.
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02-13-2009 , 02:50 PM
The way I look at it is simple :
Stressing out the pot odds concept and act accordingly is absolutely wrong in tournament play.

Some reasons:
1) the amount of tournament (hands) you get to play in tournaments is much much smaller than in ring games.

2) A 14 hrs cash session may benefit by calling with smaller edges or with very marginal hands. You loose a pot, you go to the next. In a tournament, you go home.

3) As said before the value of the chips you loose is very different from the value of the chips you win. In a cash game a dime is a dime.

4) The edge of being a good player diminuishes drastically in a tournament. Therefore chip protection is crucial. Calling an all-in pre-flop with 38, just because you have 4 to 1 to your money is suicidal. You won't have 4 more chances in the same tourney to take advantage of the statistics.

5) Most important. Donkeys don't give a **** and shove, why do the same? In other words why cut a bread loaf with a machete if you own a nice kitchen knife?
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