Odds of flopping quads or better in Omaha vs. Entire Hold Em hand - Poker Theory

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Odds of flopping quads or better in Omaha vs. Entire Hold Em hand

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10-21-2021 , 11:27 AM

DPK99

banned

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 56

I am wondering what the odds are for each.

1. Flopping quads or better in Omaha
2. Hitting quads or better on or before the river in Hold Em.

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10-27-2021 , 05:04 PM

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

it depends on the stipulations, like for scenario 2. are we assuming we have a pocket pair or just any random hand?

If we're not making any assumptions about starting hands, I can definitely say #2 is easier than #1 since in both scenarios we see 7 random cards, but in #1 there are constraints (for example if we have quads in our hand it doesn't count) whereas any combination in #2 will work (assuming you count quads on the board).

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10-28-2021 , 05:35 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

I did a quickie analysis of this so it would be good if someone can verify or correct.

(H = hand, Qf = quads on flop)

	Probability of	Flopping Quads	in Omaha
Hand	PrHand	PrQf given H/B]	Pr Qf
No Pair	67.6%	0.023%	0.016%
1 Pair	30.4%	0.28%	0.084%
2Pair	1.0%	0.56%	0.006%

The total probability is about 0.11%. Clearly, flopping quads in Omaha has a very low probability.

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