Hey guys, I hope this is the right forum to post my question.

I have been a successful and winning 1/2 NL live grinder for the past 2 years. I have been making a steady income of $14/hr and making about $2,000 a month.

I have always been a TAG. Just playing tight, mostly premium hands and playing them aggressively. Easy money, it never fails.

For the past couple of month I feel like I have taken my game to the next level and that I am getting pretty damn good at this game. So i have been implementing a LAG style. I've gotten very good at hand reading, recognizing tells, and betting patterns. Since I began playing my new LAG style I am bluffing a lot more, I am raising A LOT more, stealing a lot more pots, making a lot more thin value bets and 3betting light, etc.

As a result my earnings have suffered greatly. I play 30-40 hrs a week and in the past 2 years I have had only 1 small losing month.

Last month I -$1,400 and so far this month I am -$800.

I feel like this is the correct style of playing because I am getting paid off a lot more on my big hands and I'm picking up a lot more dead money.

I don't really understand why my winrate is so terrible the past 2 months... Is it just variance or is this not the correct style of play?

I'm probably not qualified to comment, but I've been suffering serious swings/variance these last few months. My primary issue is my VPIP is between 50 and 60 the instant I turned LAG.

My PFR is around 30 which is good, but I think my VPIP is what's killing me.

I've heard from several reputable sources that to keep up that style (I can only assume your VPIP is greater than 35) you need a flawless post flop strategy.

?

Just throwing it out there

As a result my earnings have suffered greatly. I play 30-40 hrs a week and in the past 2 years I have had only 1 small losing month.
So you play about 4,500 hands per month. Dude, that represents 3 or 4
hours of online play. Even the best players have often 25,000+ break-even
stretch.
Yes, you play live, but still It definitely is a variance issue.
I also suppose that you don't record your adjusted ev.

If no one has anything when you have a big hand, it's hard to win big pots.

A LAG style is a high variance style.
A TAG style is a low variance style.

Both can be profitable. How profitable (or not) depends on your skills.

I personally don't think a LAG style is a good idea for low limit live play. It takes advantage of people who fold too much, and these aren't the people you find in 1/2 live games. Getting paid off in a 1/2 live game should pretty much never be a problem, if it is then you can make more money staying a TAG but bluffing more post-flop.

I agree that LAG at low stakes is not a particularly good idea. You have to adjust your strategy to the table. If you are having trouble getting anyone to call with anything that doesn't beat you, turning a bit more LAG is the correct adjustment. If everyone's a stationy fish, just tighten up and take their money when you hit something. I think trying to have a style that you always stick to is not a particularly good idea anyway. A good player might play like a LAG at one table, then play like a nit at another depending on the players at the tables. It sounds like your TAG style has been winning you money and may well be the best style for the tables where you most often play. It could just be variance, too, so if you think your new style really is the right way to go after considering the players you're up against, maybe stick with it. Just don't get into the mind set of "good players play a LAG style so that's what I should do." Play against the people you're playing against. If your opponent doesn't open light, don't 3-bet light; if you're opponent doesn't make thin calls, don't make thin value bets; if your opponent doesn't fold marginal hands, don't try to steal the pot; etc etc

Could easily be variance, could also easily be that your playing much worse than you think.

If you want to become a really good player, you should move your game in the direction it looks like you are moving in but it becomes much easier to make big mistakes with this style contrary to your previous nitty style.

For 1-2 I would definitely stick with what you were doing in the past, it looks like your winrate is extremely good so i dont see any reason to change unless you move up.

I can't imagine many situations in which a LAG style would be the most profitable in a live 1/2NL game. It's natural to open up your game once you become comfortable in your setting, but it's not always optimal. If you are getting bored, why not try moving up a level, and start out with your solid fundamental approach, and then gradually add-in some more advanced maneuvers.

From my experience, 1/2NL is a sea of short stacks and calling stations (maybe your game plays deeper). When stacks are short, and your opponents have no fold button, then you really just need to play ABC and let them give you their money.

You may be overestimating your opponents' ability to fold in certain situations. Also, you may be anticipating your opponents to react to your aggressive play, when in-fact, they are just playing their cards. You did mention that you are value-betting more thinly, which I think is a very good thing. Lower limit players lose so much value by playing their medium-strength hands weakly and over-causiously.

Before thinking about results I would consider specific hands - how have you lost so much?

If you've run KK into AA a bunch of times and lost a load of flips - it's variance. If you've been trying to take old men off top pair and failed - it's EV.

Just because you're playing looser doesn't mean you're playing polarized. It could mean that you're trying really hard for delicious thin value.

To take things to extremes: say you're SB, it's folded to you, and you're 100% sure that BB will snap-call for your 100BB stacks with ATC, and you're rolled for the stakes. You're going to be open-pushing a lot of hands. For value.

Maybe it's mincing words, but if you're playing tighter than your opponents (i.e. your range is stronger than theirs most of the time), then you're not playing loose, and therefore you're not playing LAG. I guess it depends on whether you think of loose/tight as absolutes, or relative to the table. I've played games where it was extremely common for 8/9 players to see the flop every hand. Playing 50% would be tight for this table and the other players would probably consider you a bit of an unfriendly nit.

I am adjusting to the games of coarse and I only play LAG when I have been at the table with the same players for a while and I think I have a really good feel for the table and read on everyone.

The reason that I started opening up my game to a LAG style is because I have gotten really good at hand reading, tells and betting patterns. This has allowed me to narrow my opponents range significantly. And it is becoming extremely annoying when I see dead money on the table and I am not picking it up.

My night will usually go like this... I am playing well, up 1/2 or a whole buy-in. I get a good read on my opponents and start playing aggressively.

Then this happens...

UTG raises to $7, 4 callers, I am in the BB so i naturally raise to $30 (with any cards) to pick up all the dead money. I will get a caller. The flop will be something like Q72. I will bet and my opponent will call. Using my hand reading skills, I am able to put my opponent on a hand like QJ.

So, the obvious play would be to triple-barrell knowing he can't call with such a weak holding. I make a big bet on the turn, he calls. I shove all in the river, for his whole stack, my opponent thinks and says "i know you got me but i can't fold" flips over QJ and i lose...


So, utg raised to $7 so i know he doesn't have a good hand, because anytime he has a good hand he raises to $15 or $18. 4 people call, obviously none of them have a premium hand, because if they did they would raise. So there is $35 of dead money in the pot. Am i just supposed to fold??? And continue to play tight and miss out on the dead money...

Loved how you put it, tight as an absolute or in relation to the players

That was your hand reading skills? And that's dead money?

Not trying to be a douche but seriously, that's spew. Fish don't like folding, especially hands as strong as TP, trying to get them to fold without good specific reads(the one's you gave are bad, he could easily have had A7/88-JJ) It's only dead money if they'll fold, they'll only fold if they don't have a hand, TP= a very good hand!!!

You can be loose even at micros. However, as the guy above mentioned, you gotta be loose in relation to absolute ranges, not their ranges; you can be looser than a hand chart but not looser than them! gl

I don't know where you're getting your playbook from, it's obvious your opponent isn't going to fold, so your read may be right but your thinking in wrong.


You can't collect dead money if they won't fold.

Also, your example make it ever-so-clear that you should just ignore $30 in dead money and go after stacks, since people can't fold top-pair mid-kicker.

1) Your problem is NOT variance

2) The hand example you posted is beyond bad. If you're playing LAG with those kinds of ideas and reads then it is nothing short of amazing that you've only lost $2200 so far.

3) You don't just 'implement a LAG' style because you think it will be more profitable. You learn to play in many different gears and adjust from one to the next as the situation, opponents, and action dictate it.

From your description, this is definitely -EV and not variance.

Don't 3bet bluff UTG opens - people look at absolute hand strength too much and don't understand how strong that 3bet looks. And if you want to be successful with a LAGgy style you need to understand your opponent's tendencies - this guy is an ATM if he can't fold top pair. That factor is much more important than "putting him on [exactly??] QJ"

That's not enough. You need to be able to determine which of the other players at the table fold too much, and which ones call too much. You need to play differently against each type.

Should you fold? Yes, if you're against someone that won't fold.

LAG at 1/2 will net you negative in the long run. the only way to avoid this is play in a town with enough tourists and enough tables/rooms to go fishing.

Yeah, playing loose aggressive against calling stations is gonna be a spewfest.
No point in bluff-raising with ATC if villain won't fold his "weak" top pair.
The LAG style works against nits that will fold to your aggression. It does not work against stations.

The bolded alone tells me you don't really understand what you are doing. 3 betting light is not something that you build up to/add to your game or do because it is somehow inherently good. Your post implies you do it for these exact reasons.

I think it's fine (and relatively easy at some tables) to loosen up at $1/2 and I've done the same recently. I've found that you really need to control your aggression though.

Betting to get people to fold is only going to work on people who know they should fold.

A lot of times though, you're going to get called by middle pair or top pair hands when you push big. The solution? Have better than middle or top pair, and profit when they call down with worse.

Loose can be great at those stakes, providing you try to have position to control the size of the pot, and know when someone is check/calling you with a better hand. There will be plenty of time for incredible +EV moves, and trying to bluff a calling station isn't one of them.

It's tried and true at lower stakes. Value bet, value bet, value bet. You can do that with a looser style by getting in cheap, in position.

Doing it with an overly aggressive style is kind of pointless though.

Either...

A) Players get gunshy when facing 'the maniac' and run from any bet they place, to the point where it's difficult to get paid off.

B) The calling stations get to showdown and win a giant pot you built for them.

I've done best with ABC poker. The only time I'll get overly aggressive is if another player is trying to control the table with his own aggressive play. I'll generally try and shut him down with some check/raises, 3/4bets, ect.. ect..

This is all a broad generalization, as it really comes down to who's at your table.

+1

I.e., if you've got your HUD up and everyone at the table is 10/5, then it behooves you to loosen up a bit.

1. You can steal a lot of blinds when you see that they fold 100% of the time to PFR in the BB
2. You can steal a lot of raises when they fold 80% or more to a 3bet PFR
3. When their VP$IP is 10, you put them on a very narrow range of hands, which means if the flop is 2 5 8 rags, you can bet they've got a nothing. An 80% pot sized bet will make them fold most of the time.

All of this translates into being very profitable to loosen up to take advantage of your opponents unwillingness to gamble.