New algorithm to calculate ICM for large tournaments - Page 4 - Poker Theory

I have one question- does ICM theory takes into account our tourney live, I mean winning an all-in doesn't make us win a tourney and it seems, that we should narrow our ranges because of that? In general which factors ICM theory counts besides chips distribution and which not yet? I personally know about one obvious factor, which should have an impact to our decisions, but ICM model absolutely ignores it, which is actually hilarious.

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07-22-2024 , 03:21 PM

#77

tombos21

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Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 2,091

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does ICM theory takes into account our tourney live, I mean winning an all-in doesn't make us win a tourney

ICM looks at stacks in a vacuum and calculates how likely each player is to place 1st, 2nd, 3rd and so on. Here's an example.

Once you know the projected finish distributions, you just multiply it by the prize for each place to get the ICM value.

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In general which factors ICM theory counts besides chips distribution and which not yet?

Just chip distribution. The main shortcomings of ICM are:

ICM slightly underestimates the chip leaders’ advantage. The big stack can win more than their fair share because they have a risk premium advantage against the mid stacks.
ICM assumes all players are equally skilled. In reality, we’d expect the more skilled players to win a larger percentage of the time, relative to their stack.

Stuff that is factored into solves and/or future game simulation ICM models:

Villain's strategy
Current and future positions of players
Blinds increasing in the future

ICM has some shortcomings, but it's still the best formula we have for predicting tournament equities. There are more sophisticated models, but it's almost impossible to calculate large MTT fields with those models. (Swales/Roberts/Etc).

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