100bb deep HU
You are button with KJ
Opponent is BB with XX

You raise to 3
Opponent three bets to 10 (Pot is 20)

Flop: K36

Scenario A:

Opponent bets 11
You call 11 (Pot is 42)

Turn: K36 A

Opponent bets 24
You call 24 (Pot is 100)
River: K36 A 8

Opponent shoves for 50
You think "I have to be right at least 1/4 times here to call correctly".

Scenario B: Everything is the same except sizing on his part.

Flop: K36

Opponent bets 9
You call 9 (Pot is 38)

Turn: A

Opponent bets 14.25
You call 14.25 (Pot is 66.50)

River: 8

Opponent shoves 66.75
You think, "I need to be right at least 1/3 times to call correctly".

Would most people here be more inclined to call 50 into 100, getting 3:1 odds, or 67 into 67 getting 2:1 odds?

Basically what I'm thinking is wouldn't most people agree that in general 50 into 100 looks less like a bluff than 67 into 67 because the average person would expect to get called so much of the time? A pot sized bet, to most people, would be more reason to expect your opponent to fold more hands.

Cliffnotes:

Because small shoves on rivers expect to get such few folds, shouldnt we be more inclined to call bigger shoves despite the worse odds?

Tell me what u think.

Thank You,
JAW

Bet sizes increase in order to create folding equity, so the bigger the bet the more likely the bluff - especially if it closes the action -

Theoretically no.

You have to be correct less often when calling small shoves (that are potential bluffs), rather than big shoves.

Even when your opponent makes a pot sized bet-bluff, you only have to be right 1 times in 3 for it to be correct to call with a bluff catcher.

Calling an all in, you may frequently have to be right about the bluff closer to 50% of the time (actually a little less than 50%).

Well yea players bet big when they are bluffing (usually). But you have to be careful. Alot of players simply bet huge/over bet the nuts.

Right, but there are certain spots where betting AI is kind of a "no brainer" bluff, people do it all the time in 3bet pots when they're trying to playback etc. The bigger the bet and the less money behind, the more conspicuous the bet in my experience.

One of the goals of a bluff "should" be to bet as little as possible to get the job done.

I found that at the micro-stakes, that your opponent's are frequently not thinking past their own two cards. So theoretically, you should just be taking small stabs at the pot, because they are going to fold for almost any amount (if they're on a weak range).

So all-in bluffs are just really a desperation move, and many times players do it when they have some drawing equity, if it is before the river card.

But in reality, the all-in bluff, unless it's used apart of a balanced strategy is just a bad play. So if your opponent is making bad bluffs like this, they are probably a weak player. So in this case, you should call them down. But generally, you would much rather call down a small potential bluff than a big one, because you have to be right a smaller percentage of the time.

Over bet bluffs seem to be pretty rare and a lot of opponents continue the bluff regardless of how many chips they have left

against a random idiot, I think he's going to be more polarized in shoving for a pot sized bet, so thats kind of a feel/gameflow question. i think the more important issue is that a good villain will be slightly altering his bet sizing to have a weak hero get priced in on the river, so if same villain takes these two lines, I do agree you may have to discount your equity much more, but it becomes a question of whether villain is good enough to be planning for the river play on this board. also, this should factor in to calling/folding earlier streets as you can see this coming as well, so knowing that he's only going to have half-pot left on the river you probably have to assume its going in no matter what, and adjust your turn and less so flop play.

OP you're really leveling yourself. Expecting villains to think on 3rd level is really optimistic even at HU, especially at 100NL