Quote:
Originally Posted by bennymacca
firstly, this is an awesome thread. well done guys.
i think a lot of the confusion that arises in this thread is because OP's numbers, on the surface, look reasonable. but the thinking is certainly flawed.
to illustrate this, i decided to tweak his session numbers a little bit.
for the purposes of this argument, lets assume that session nine didn't occur - OP felt a bit sick and decided to stay home instead of going to the casino.
lets also assume that on the very last hand of the last session, OP managed to pick up aces into kings and double. so instead of winning 81 BB, he wins 162BB.
both of those tweaks are within reason i think.
now, calculating the confidence interval, it has blown out to [-12.5, +46.26]
suddenly that looks horrible.
it would be very easy to make some very small tweaks to make it look even worse.
change the final session from a winning session to a losing one and the confidence interval as calculated above becomes about [-10 , +30]
small changes have a big effect, which is obvious but it also highlights that the thinking is flawed and it was just lucky that the original calculations turned out to be something approaching what you would intuitively think correct.
So you're saying..but what IF I won more money in less hands? You're saying that instead of having played 1250 hands, you can tell me that if my statistics only included 1150 hands with more money won then my calculations would be less reliable. But I have 1250 hands.. If I had 1150 hands then of course I'd be less confident in how I run (and I'm not saying that everyone can know in exactly 1250 hands how big of a loser they are). I think that certain play styles mean different things. If I was a hyper aggressive player I would have bigger swings than the ones that I have had. If I'd bought in with full $200 stacks I'd have seen bigger swings as well. But I have not bought in with big stacks. I've also (from these statistics) had -2 BI nights when I got it in ahead. Did I still include them in my statistics? Of course I did because I realize sometimes you can run bad too. Sometimes you win 2 BI's in a session, and sometimes you lose that many. That's probably why it says my win rate can be 19+- BB/100 than what it currently "is".
This is why I calculated that if I LOSE 2 buy-ins a night over the course of the next 5 nights in a row that I play, then I would have an average win-rate of -3 BB/100 hands over all of my hands played. This shows why the CI thinks that the worst that I'm doing is losing 3 BB/100 on average.
Also, I completely agree that this thread has been very awesome! I appreciate everyone's help so far. Can some of you Bayesian experts use my data to plug into a Bayesian formula and see what those results say?
#.......Profit......... Net Profit..Hrs....Tot. Hands....Session BB/100
12......$148......... $844.........50.......1250.............24.67
11......$(21)........ $696.........44.......1100............(5.25)
10..... $153..........$717.........40.......1000.......... ..38.25
9........$(100).......$564.........36.........900. ..........(33.33)
8........$49...........$664.........33.........825 .............10.89
7........$59...........$615.........28.5......713. ............14.75
6........$53...........$556.........24.5......613. .............13.25
5........$132..........$503........20.5.......513. ............33.00
4........$19............$371.......16.5........413 .............3.80
3........$226..........$352.......11.5........288. ............64.57
2........$(200)........$126.........8..........200 ............(50.00)
1........$326..........$326.........4..........100 .............81.50
Last edited by fourfades; 08-06-2010 at 07:23 PM.