Recently I have subscribed to GTO Wizard and I have stumbled upon IMHO few really weird situations. I am not expert neither in poker or GTO however I am just wondering is there a chance that for whatever reason GTO Wizard is not correct? Last hand was: 1.Hero on HJ (10,9 suited) bets 2
2.bb Villain on BTN raised 7.5 bb
3. Hero calls
Flop: AA10 rainbow
4. Hero checks
5. Villain bets 3.3 bb (in 16.5 bb pot)
6. Hero should fold 100% and call is -0.43EV.
GTO Wizard's results seem reasonable. I've encountered similar spots that also surprised me the first time I saw them, but when you really think it through:
Many of villain's preflop bluffs contained an ace and are now trips.
We are still losing to JJ-KK.
We are blocking 99, which we beat.
We are basically flipping with opponent's bluffs JQ, KQ, KJ.
Villain's range is so strong they will be able to bluff us off this hand by the river if we are ahead.
If we hit a 10 or a 9 we still lose to an ace. We would rather call with bluff catchers that have outs vs an ace, like KQ especially with a BDFD. Hands like this do block bluffs, but also block AK and AQ.
It's only "weird" if you're not versed in how the ranges of each player interact with the board. Here's V's 3bet range. As you can see, its pretty heavy with hands that we are either crushed on not that far ahead of. And we are OOP.
