Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyBrooks
Then maybe I don't either? Full kelly says you should only risk the fraction of your BR equal to your edge, which is less than 100%.
This is not very relevant. Risking the Kelly fraction maximises the expected long term return when a bet is repeated many times. Risking up to twice the Kelly fraction has positive long term return. But in this case, a single event is under discussion. The most appropriate quantitative measure would be the expectation of the utility function for the person considering the wager. If the utility function is concave, running it twice will increase the expected utility and will be preferable, if the utility function is convex, running it twice will reduced the expected utility and will be not preferable. A typical concave utility function would be where a chance of doubling your net worth would not make up for an equal chance of losing your entire net worth.
There was an interesting true story a few years back where some guy cashed his entire net worth (around $100,000), walked into a Las Vegas casino (in his boxers) and put the whole amount on a roulette bet on red. After doubling up, he declined the croupier's offer to play again, indicating that his utility function had suddenly gone from being convex enough to not worry about a 5% house edge, to a function that was not convex enough to justify a second bet.