Is it ever correct to fold a guaranteed split?
In the past I have always snap called guaranteed splits with the logic: "Guaranteed split = Nothing to lose, Only to gain = Snap call".
Of course, I wasn't considering the rake...
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Let's say we are playing a game with
5% rake (6bb).
Preflop (100bb starting stacks): SB limps and BB checks Q
2
.
Flop: A
K
Q
Check, Check
Turn: J
Check, Check
River (2bb): T
SB shoves 99bb, BB?
EV of folding: 0bb
EV of calling: [(200bb - 6bb) / 2] - 99bb = -2bb
EV(Fold) > EV(Call) so BB must fold.
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So based on this I guess this is true:
1) The GTO play is for OOP to shove and IP to fold.
2) Versus a human that does not understand the rake trap and will call the river if SB shoves, the right play is for SB to check and fold to a shove, right?
3) Versus a human that
may understand the rake trap and fold or
may misread the board and fold, shoving
may be the best option.
How often must BB fold for SB to shove?
x% of the time, BB folds and SB wins 2bb.
1-x% of the time, BB calls and SB loses 2bb (+1bb in split - 3bb rake)
2/(2+2) = 50%
Have I got it right?