Hello everybody, I've been thinking about how to play vs. a squeeze when only 100bb deep, this lead me to do some math on the subject and I was hoping someone could check that I have done it correctly and add any of their own opinions they may have.

If the action is we open CO to 3bb, SB calls 2.5bb, BTN Squeezes to 13bb, we 4bet to 29bb.

If we ever think we have 35%+ equity vs. his ship we should call as we need 34.9% to break even.

If we give him a value range of TT+, AKs, AKo (3.47%) and gave him a bluff range of AQs-AJs, A5s-A4s, T9s, 98s, AQo (2.71%), this would be a value
range of 56% and a bluff range of 44%.

Therefore 44% of the time we win 19bb when we 4bet.

If we 4bet/fold 56% of the time we lose 29bb.

If in this scenario we have A5s (about 31% equity vs. his value range) and we decide to 4bet/call then 56% of the time we lose 38bb.

In order for us to be profitable with a 4bet bluff we need him to be bluffing 61% of the time, so if he keeps a value range of 3.47% then he would need around a total bluff range of 5.73% for a total overall squeeze range of 9.2%.

The ranges are not that realistic and we don't account for when we call, or when the SB backraises or if the BB has a wider 3bet/ship range or a 3bet/call range etc. but I'm trying to get an idea of a few of the numbers and using the above ranges as a jumping off point for adjusting to peoples play.

My brain got thrown on a loop by this bit. Can you rewrite it so that the action sequence is actually possible? Is the squeezer actually the BB?

Arrrggg yes sorry, BB is the squeezer! I can't edit the OP now unfortunately.

I'd just fold some, call some, and shove some. My shoving range is 100% value without prior history of seeing the big blind 3 bet fold previously. Probably QQ+, AKo. With history of seeing the big blind 3 bet fold previously, I'll mix in A2s-A5s, 87s-KQs sometimes. I'm always calling AQs-ATs, AQo, AJo, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, as well as any pair that I opened there in the hopes that the small blind calls.

My reasoning for not having a smaller 4 bet size is that no size really makes sense because of the presence of the small blind. If we make a standard raise to 29 big blinds and the small blind calls, that leaves us with 71 big blinds in a pot of 87 big blinds, which is not an advantageous position. By shoving our big hands, we put lots of pressure on both opponents to make big mistakes.

FWIW, OP pm-ed me about this and I directed him to the donkr articles about "unexploitable" pre-flop math/ranges. Those articles explain the topic better than I can, and should give him some guidance on how to build ranges for various pre-flop situations. It's a very complex topic, obviously.

What articles. Is it the optimal 3-bet/4-bet/5-bet strategies one. I just searched and found this. It looks really good and I never read it. It say's it was written 4 years ago. I take it its one of those articles that teaches you thought process and does not degrade with time? Or are you recommending a different article, and if so can I get the link
Thanks Arty, your posts are always real good.

Those articles give pretty good framework for the basic math, remember studying those for many hours. But they are far from perfect as they don't even try to model the calling scenarios.

Yes. The articles at http://en.donkr.com/Articles/Categor...39;em-6-Max-16 are a good starting point.

As doctor877 points out, the strategies detailed in those articles aren't perfect GTO. Pre-flop poker isn't a simple toy game, so it can't be "solved" as such. You still have to think about calling ranges and post-flop equity/playability, blockers, board coverage blah blah blah...
The pot still being multiway makes the situation even more complicated too, but the Donkr articles are good for explaining the math side of things.

Thank you for the reply Bob148 and everyone else, and thanks again to Arty for the awesome PM and donkr link.

Arty mentioned since I already have 3bb invested in the pot before I 4bet bluff I only risk 26bb, which would then mean we only need the villain to be bluffing 58% of the time for a 4bet bluff to be profitable given this betsizing.

He also mentioned that if I am 4betting A5s then card removal could make a difference with the percentages the villain is bluffing / vbetting when he squeezes. Using the ranges in the OP I block the same amount of bluffs as value hands.

If instead I 4bet bluff KQo then I block 10 value hands whereas with A5s I only block 7, and using OP ranges I would only block 4 bluffs meaning he would be bluffing 47% of the time now instead of 44%.

A problem is not knowing how each player constructs their bluffing range, although we will always block 10 combo's of value hands as pretty much every villain will have AK,KK,QQ in their value range, they could have a bluff range which means we block more combo's of their bluffs with KQo than their value hands, and they would then have a higher % of valuebets than bluffs.

I would guess then it is better as Bob148 suggests to have a range mixed with Axs, KQ and 78s etc. to leave yourself less exploitable incase a villain were to figure out you only 4bet bluff KQ/KJ/KT and also have the benefit of better board coverage.

Or does anyone think there is merit to 4bet bluffing KQo,KJo,KTo because they always block lots of value hands (I would be usually flatting the suited hands).

Possibly the latter only in lower stakes games / vs. unskilled opponents?

I think KQo-KTo perform so poorly when called that you would need much more than the typical amount of fold equity in order for 4 betting these hands to be good.

Is this if we ship and get called by his value range as you mentioned in your first post?

If we decide to employ a 4bet/fold strategy and if he has some calls in his range, something like AQs,AJs,TT and a slow played AA, we have more raw equity with KQo and KJo than we do with A5s. If we are playing IP I'd think we'd be able to realise a decent amount of this equity too. I'm not sure if it's that unlikely to get called by this range either, I've definitely had players call my 4bets with AQs/AJs.

I hadn't heard of only 4bet shipping/calling/folding like you are suggesting, is it considered the best strategy currently?

Thanks again.

No it's not. I've been flamed for suggesting it before and probably will again.

29bb isn't really a std 4bet size by any standards if you are 100bb deep. : D


But yeah jam/call/fold actually ok strat in some spots. Plenty of HS players do it in few spots.

But a further wrinkle is that you get dealt KQo three times as often (12 combos) as A5s (4 combos), so you'd now be bluffing much more often if you *always* chose to 4-bet an offsuit hand instead of a suited one.

I'm not going to suggest "optimal" hands for this spot, but if I was looking for 12 combos of bluffs to put in a particular range that was still fairly easy to remember, I'd typically pick three different suited hands (e.g. KQs, ATs, 65s) in preference to all 12 combos of just one offsuit hand (like KQo). A GTO bot would make it even more complicated and use mixed strats, like bluffing KQo 12% of the time, ATs 84% of the time, 65s 19% of the time, A5s 82% (and several other "random" hands at low frequencies) and also have a "sometimes call, sometimes 4-bet, sometimes fold" frequency with many hands) so that its range was much harder to pinpoint and exploit, while keeping the total bluff frequency the same.
Blockers and anti-blockers, mixed frequencies and board coverage make everything so damn complicated, as I already mentioned. Choosing different raise sizes further confuses things. You can drive yourself crazy thinking about it. :/

Luckily for us, we only have to play one hand at a time. What is a profitable 4 bet shove this time may not be next time. What is a profitable calling hand this time may not be next time. What is a fold this time may be a 4 bet shove next time.

Just use all the information at your disposal to play this hand the best you can and I think you'll be fine.

Luckily for us, we only have to play one range at a time. What is a profitable 4 bet shove this time may not be next time. What is a profitable calling range this time may not be next time. What is a fold this time may be a 4 bet shove next time.

Just use all the information at your disposal to play this range the best you can and I think you'll be fine.

Thanks for all the information and advice.

Regarding the shove/call/fold only strategy, would it not be best to select the hands that have the best raw equity vs. a call (assuming we have a pretty solid idea of his calling range) KQs and JQs appear to have the most equity. KQs blocking the most value hands and JQs blocking 1 less than A5s but with slightly more equity. Maybe KQs,JQs and A5s would be the best 3 options as suited connectors 78s,89s,65s have a few percent less raw equity and no real blockers to value hands but blockers to potential bluffs.

But if you were going to 4bet smaller, 29bb or 26bb,25bb etc. then the suited connectors would be better for board coverage.

I see now how complicated this scenario is, I feel a lot better having done some work on it though, I feel like I have a much better idea of what is good and what is bad.

Yeah I like the idea of maximizing equity when called here. For that reason, I'd prefer the big suited connectors and A2s-A5s over the smaller suited connectors.
It's important to note that since you're 4 betting smaller, that you can't bluff as much here. Also, I think lots of players will err on the side of calling too liberally vs the smaller sizing. This all adds up to a very value heavy 4 betting range.