Quote:
Originally Posted by keuwai
That might make sense 10 years ago, but nowadays you can just look at the equilibrium in the solver, think about what your opponents are doing differently, and make the appropriate adjustments.
Eg if flush draws are indifferent on the turn, but your opponent is not bluffing enough when the flush completes, then they just become a fold.
I think there's still value in learning to estimate these calculations on the fly.
You run into spots where you know someone is never bluffing, and if you're drawing to the nuts it just becomes a matter of calculating whether you are getting the right pot odds to call.
When a nit bets pot on the turn you can just round off the size of the bet, pot and how much of their remaining stack you think you can win on average when you hit your draw.
Then you might think, "I've got to call 10 to win around 70, and since I'm going to get there around one out of five times it should be a profitable call."
10×5=$50 invested in five of these spots, and if you win $70 one time you're coming out ahead in the long run.
This might not be the most sophisticated way of thinking about the spot but it's often effective, especially in low stakes games where people aren't thinking about concepts like balance, minimum defense frequency, etc.