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Originally Posted by Rich Checkmaker
Lets simply look at the preflop play. How is never 4 betting preflop GTO? Cepheus calls 100% of my 3-bets preflop, never raises. It defies logic.
I'd be surprised if it never raises. How do you know it never raises.
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I was hoping some more people would play Cepheus and post their results here instead of just doing what everyone else did, accept their conclusion without evidence.
Their methodologies has been mathematically proven. The only possible question is whether there is any mistake in implementation.
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And I don't appreciate being ridiculed or called clueless. I believe that sort of attitude is frowned upon on 2p2. Fyi I am quite literally, a genius. Especially concerning matters of recursive programming.
Then you need to read up on their methods. Your comments below seem to show you don't really understand them well.
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When I heard about how Cepheus learned I did a quick run in my head. Initially Cepheus was doing random **** and learning which random action had a more profitable result. Correct so far?
Not really. It starts with a default strategy for each player of doing each possible action in a given situation with equal probability. It then looks at which actions would perform better in a given situation and "regrets" not doing those actions more, and increases the relative frequency of those actions while decreasing the frequency of actions the perform worse. So it's not trying actions at random as you suggest. This process continues and is guaranteed to converge to a nash equilibrium.
While it's doing these iterations, it is also computing the maximally exploitative response to the current strategy and it stops when that exploitation is below the desired tolerance.
If there is no bug in this step (even if there were a bug in the convergence algorithm) then it's impossible to beat the bot by more than a small amount in the long run.
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Then he would do that action with a higher frequency until it reached an equilibrium where profit is maxed. The problem with that approach is that the regret value that Cepheus initially learned for betting/raising/calling is not regretful enough simply because it will add value for times when it bet itself off a hand that shouldn't fold. Now of course it's going to learn to regret folding the nuts also, I understand that. So it might take away the erroneous added value for raising and getting the nuts to fold. I don't think it's getting it right
The initial default strategy will include folding the nuts. But it will always regret doing that and yes it will learn to undo that.
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Another thing to consider, in a spot on the river with a board of A5678 it will call like a bet on the river with a hand like T5 40% of the time and Q5 51% of the time etc. Well wouldnt it be more GTO to call with Q5 91% and T5 0%. You'd have the same frequencies to pick off bluffs except youve simply strengthened your range on the end. Of course you'd need to randomize those hand on earlier streets for deception, but on the end when theres only 1 more bet to call I think Cepheus would be better off calling with the same overall frequency but with the higher end of cards. Seems obvious.
No, it wouldn't be "more GTO" because the hands where that matters are never betting.
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Also since Cepheus never 4 bets preflop what does it think of my 4 bets?? Is it just laughing to himself going "you're going to regret that idiot"? How can it play against that never doing it itself?
This shows you don't really understand how the algorithm works. Just because Cepheus never does action X in situation Y doesn't mean it never considered the consequences of doing that. In fact, it considers the effect of every action in every situation on every iteration.
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Maybe the regretful 4 bets are still there in memory somewhere. Which is another important thing. Why does it never 4 bet? Again I'm thinking it should 4 bet with mostly the top end and some of its lower end, and just call 3bet mostly with the lower end and occasionally with the top end. Please try to explain how never 4 betting preflop is GTO. Should be funny.
If (big IF) it never 4-bets then either the GTO frequency of doing that is zero or there is a bug.