Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
I am asking how low the rake has to be for the overall EV of the blind pushing strategy to be negative.
This is as close as I can get, within a few combos (non-mixed), and within 4 significant digits digits, over 500 million trials.
Rake% = 26.21 percent
Rake$ = 55.04 dollars
Pot = 10
Dark Shove = 100
Call = 100
Pot after rake = 154.959
Rake per player if tied = 22.5205
Caller calls with a range of: 66+, A5s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+
When the game runs with these parameters this happens (using Equilab):
Caller calls with frequency .17948718
Caller folds with frequency .82051282
The Caller wins with frequency .6354
The caller loses with frequency .3446
The players tie with frequency .0200
The expectation value of the game to the caller is:
(.17948718)(54.959)(.6354) - (.17948718)(100)(.3446) - (.17948718)(.0200)(22.5205) = .00189 -->.189 cents
The expectation value to the dark shove is:
10(.82051282) + (54.959)(.3446)(.17948718) - (100)(.6354)(.17948718) - (.17948718)(.0200)(22.5205) = .11895 --> 11.895 cents
If the rake goes any lower, the caller will start to add combos and the shover goes negative.