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11-16-2021 , 04:08 AM

LordPallidan12

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

does anyone have a good data dump of board runout statistics? like, odds of ANY straight completing by river etc?

sidenote: anyone interested in tagteaming some plo5 math? aint nothin wrong with it, as long as we dont make eye contact

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11-16-2021 , 09:21 AM

Haizemberg93

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Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 7,241

What do you mean by statistics? You could calculate probability of the, it's bit of work but not that hard.

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11-16-2021 , 03:10 PM

NewOldGuy

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Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by LordPallidan12

does anyone have a good data dump of board runout statistics? like, odds of ANY straight completing by river etc?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

See the 7 card section.

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11-16-2021 , 03:30 PM

LordPallidan12

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

See the 7 card section.

AWESOME! that's what i was looking for.

in plo5 if im on the flop JT2 and i wanna know what odds of NO complete straight by the river is... its more than just... 1-(completing cards/remaining cards)^2 , since more draws often come on the turn.

whats best way? if i use the data link u provided, would there ust be a rough way to estimate off of that, with 2 cards to come instead of 5?

its like odds of made draw completing + odds of all new draws coming in * odds of them completing, respectively? its a pretty big tree or? (im not too fresh on my math, thanks for ur patience)

Last edited by LordPallidan12; 11-16-2021 at 03:45 PM.

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11-16-2021 , 03:32 PM

LordPallidan12

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by Haizemberg93

What do you mean by statistics? You could calculate probability of the, it's bit of work but not that hard.

just a bunch of spots in plo5 i was wondering about. like odds of fading certain runouts, and some stat stuff thats above my head.. like calculation of confidence intervals based upon different factors like average EV when all in and what that means in terms of swings.

also, if plo 5 variance is insurmountable or not within my lifetime given its usually 60v 40 flips xD
just a couple guys hanging out drinking beer doing some math and whatever happens happens, you know?

Last edited by LordPallidan12; 11-16-2021 at 03:51 PM.

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11-17-2021 , 05:30 PM

Haizemberg93

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Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 7,241

Quote:

Originally Posted by LordPallidan12

It would take way too much time to do it by the hand.
One method is to write down every run out that completes the str8 and divide by number of all possible runouts. For JT2 those are run outs
-that pair one flop card and the other card is 3-6
-run outs that double pair any card between 3 and 6
-run outs that pair two flop card like T, J
-trips run out like 2 2
I think those are all possibilities?

1-(completing cards/remaining cards)^2 is not taking into account possibilities of BD draws.

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11-18-2021 , 01:48 PM

LordPallidan12

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

nice, thank you for your answer, i actually had a nightmare where i was in a room and i had to draw all the possible probability trees that could happen there.

i found out on odds oracle i could just run the situation and it would tell me.

thank you for your help

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