Am I correct to assume this GTO Wizard tip is wrong? Even if villain never check raises as a bluff, you can't say any value bet that wins more than 50% of the times when called is correct.
If we are betting into a value heavy range, then any time villain raise us with his strong hands we lose our bet. And that must be calculated into the ev of the betting equation.
Imagine the scenario where we win exactly 51% of the times when called.
Would that compensate for our lost bet when villain is check raising his strong hands?
Only scenario I can think of where this would make sense, is one where villain never check raises us, either for bluff or for value.
In every day spot, I bet even against someone who doesn't check raise bluff, you can't bet this thin and need a wider margin. Ofc against a serial bluffer, you would need an even wider margin of wins to compensate.
Thoughts?