Variance describes how "spread out" the outcomes are,
as shown here. It's a measurement, not a force of nature.
If you
always hit exactly 1/3 flops, that would be an outcome with no variance. But because poker has chance, the outcomes are spread out, resulting in variance.
Quote:
We know it’s not 100 percent chance since you can have all 3 chances and not win but I thought it was variance that would explain why you don’t have a guarantee to hit in those 3 chances.
You seem to think that a 1/3 chance repeated 3 times means you should always hit. But that's not how probabilities work.
Imagine a room filled with people comparing their birthdays. How many people must be in the room before two people share a birthday, on average? (Ignoring year)