*** Vacuum probability analysis alert ***
Basing on the rating difference (I can't assess their shape, it seems equally bad for both) and the fact that White pieces give a +40 rating boost (and Black -40), I guess the w/d/l probability distribution looks like this:
C-A game 11 (aggro) 0.6/0.2/0.2
C-A game 11 (solid) 0.45/0.45/0.1
A-C game 12 (aggro) 0.35/0.3/0.35
A-C game 12 (solid) 0.25/0.55/0.2
Vishy's chance to win the tiebreak if it happens is ~25% imo (20% to win in the rapid part; 45% to draw it and 11% to win in blitz, hence 45%*11%=5% extra chance coming from the blitz part).
Let's also account for the difference in the prize distribution: the champion gets €600K if he wins the classical part and only €550K if he wins the tiebreaks. Subtracting the €400K prize gtd to both, we have that the champion gets €200K/150K extra if he wins in classical/tiebreak part, and the runner-up gets €50K if he survives the classical part.
So if Vishy draws the classical part, his extra prize equity will be €150K*0.25+€50K*0.75=€75K.
Now, if Anand goes all-in in game 11 and tightens up in game 12 if he wins game 11, his prize equity will be:
0.2*0.25*€200K + (0.2*0.55+0.2*0.35)*€75K = €10000+€13500 = €23500.
If Vishy goes aggro in game 11 and in game 12 even if he wins game 11:
0.2*0.35*€200K + (0.2*0.3+0.2*0.35)*€75K = €14000+€9750 = €23750.
If Vishy tightens up in game 11 and in game 12 if he wins game 11:
0.1*0.25*€200K + (0.1*0.55+0.45*0.35)*€75K = €5000 + €15937.50 = €20562.50.
If he tightens up in game 11 but goes aggro in game 12 in any case:
0.1*0.35*€200K + (0.1*0.3+0.45*0.35)*€75K = €7000+€14062.50 = €21062.50.
Now let's compute Vishy's champion title (+ pay rise by chess24 and other sponsors) probability, replacing €200K by 1 and €75K by 0.25 in the above calculations. We get:
Case 1: 0.095=9.5%.
Case 2: 10.25%.
Case 3: 7.81%
Case 4: 8.19%.
Conclusion: Vishy should push for a win in both games, ainec
I'm impressed by the accuracy of BJJ's odds assessment!
Last edited by coon74; 11-22-2014 at 10:38 PM.