Obligatory comment at how sad it is that women can't be professional chess commentators without the discussion inevitably becoming about their looks.

Anyway, man I want Anand to win one more and really put the pressure on.

Do most judge Judit's look when she comments? I don't think so (though she's more beautiful than world's #1 would be expected to be). Usually, female commentators are weaker at chess than their male counterparts, so the topic of the quality of their commentary is politely sidestepped.

All I really think I'm saying is Sopiko not only is doing a better job with Svidler but seems more attractive too. I don't think these things are mutual exclusive at all. I just didn't really have anything else to say about the game since it seemed boring to me and I was just sitting there wondering how to get Svidler to annotate my life as it is happening for me. Then I realized she seemed a lot cuter and was wondering if she actually changed her look or anything. Meh. Whatever, at least Magnus stayed awake for the entire game. Let us look towards tomorrow since Anand pretty much has to try something imo.

Because female commentators are weaker at chess, they need to actually be good commentators. Strong GMs can usually get away with just being okay commentators since they may be extremely strong chess players. The weaker British GM last world championship seemed a lot better than Sopiko at commentating but overall the commentating was nothing like it has been this time b/c Svidler seems to just be great at both.

i want anand to win but more than anything just praying it at least goes to the final classical game. games start at 11pm for me and i have a long international flight at 11am the day after g12, so would finally be able to pull an all-nighter listening to svidler

I'm glad Anand gets white in game 12. It will make for a much more interesting finale, provided Carlsen doesn't manage to win game 11 and just end it then and there.

even with black, he'd have to be a pretty massive favorite in game 12 if he just has to draw, yeah?

Oh yeah, Carlsen with black, but effectively with draw odds, is still a huge favorite. Likely to be a much more interesting game though, as with the white pieces Anand at least has an opportunity to pose some difficulties which Carlsen will have to solve, and maybe generate some pressure.

More likely than not, Carlsen will defend well enough (and quite likely win after, in a theoretically drawn position, Anand tries something objectively overambitious since why not try it). Still as a spectator, just the likelihood of Carlsen having to "defend" at all is a lot more exciting than the idea of him just running out the clock, which he could do much more easily with white.

i'd prolly give about 10-1 on anand winning game 12 in a must-win situ

however this isn't without precedent in world championship history, kasparov had to win game 24 in his 1987 match vs karpov and iirc lasker had to beat schlechter in a must-win situ as well

also carlsen has shown that he can crumble under pressure after we saw what happened in the last round of the candidates tournament

In case Vishy has to win game 12, he must play 1. d4 2. Bg5 (Trompowsky or, if Magnus plays d5, Levitsky) Then his winning odds will be 35%-ish.

I'd say 8-1 is probably closest to right for Anand to win a hypothetical must-win game 12, and would be only vaguely tempted to put money on Anand at 10-1 before probably deciding not to, even though I don't think the odds are *quite* that long.

Kramnik also beat Leko in the last (14th) game in 2004 to tie 7-7 and retain the title (in a lovely game).


I don't hate the Berlin, but I really hope we get some excitement on game 11.

To prevent Magnus from winning game 11, and also to honour the country holding the match, Vishy can try the Petrov, where Magnus has a bad White winrate, while Vishy's Black score is positive with many draws. Their seconds have already prepared everything for this scenario, though, we can only wait... Or at least it shouldn't be the Berlin, for spectators' sake.

Haven't seen a lot of the coverage, but if there's only one woman, she eventually becomes more attractive.

There are two prominent women there - count Nastya Karlovich in. I'm not sure which one is prettier.

TBF that situation was rather unique though. Carlson had to at least match Kramnick which lead to a strange situation where both players needed to pay close attention to the others boards and adapt accordingly. As Kramicks position looked promising near the time control magnus was essentially forced to suddenly try to win the game from a position where he had been trying to keep options open, which must be extremely difficult when facing such high level opposition.

I think things would be a lot different if he just had to hold a draw in the last round as he would know exactly what he needed to do and could play accordingly. It did make for exceptional viewing though. I watching round 12 live had me more on edge than even the final tables I've made in large field MTTs

What do you guys think, will Anand start fighting with the black pieces tomorrow already, or will he put all of his eggs in the basket that is game 12?

*** Vacuum probability analysis alert ***

Basing on the rating difference (I can't assess their shape, it seems equally bad for both) and the fact that White pieces give a +40 rating boost (and Black -40), I guess the w/d/l probability distribution looks like this:

C-A game 11 (aggro) 0.6/0.2/0.2
C-A game 11 (solid) 0.45/0.45/0.1

A-C game 12 (aggro) 0.35/0.3/0.35
A-C game 12 (solid) 0.25/0.55/0.2

Vishy's chance to win the tiebreak if it happens is ~25% imo (20% to win in the rapid part; 45% to draw it and 11% to win in blitz, hence 45%*11%=5% extra chance coming from the blitz part).

Let's also account for the difference in the prize distribution: the champion gets €600K if he wins the classical part and only €550K if he wins the tiebreaks. Subtracting the €400K prize gtd to both, we have that the champion gets €200K/150K extra if he wins in classical/tiebreak part, and the runner-up gets €50K if he survives the classical part.

So if Vishy draws the classical part, his extra prize equity will be €150K*0.25+€50K*0.75=€75K.

Now, if Anand goes all-in in game 11 and tightens up in game 12 if he wins game 11, his prize equity will be:

0.2*0.25*€200K + (0.2*0.55+0.2*0.35)*€75K = €10000+€13500 = €23500.

If Vishy goes aggro in game 11 and in game 12 even if he wins game 11:

0.2*0.35*€200K + (0.2*0.3+0.2*0.35)*€75K = €14000+€9750 = €23750.

If Vishy tightens up in game 11 and in game 12 if he wins game 11:

0.1*0.25*€200K + (0.1*0.55+0.45*0.35)*€75K = €5000 + €15937.50 = €20562.50.

If he tightens up in game 11 but goes aggro in game 12 in any case:

0.1*0.35*€200K + (0.1*0.3+0.45*0.35)*€75K = €7000+€14062.50 = €21062.50.

Now let's compute Vishy's champion title (+ pay rise by chess24 and other sponsors) probability, replacing €200K by 1 and €75K by 0.25 in the above calculations. We get:

Case 1: 0.095=9.5%.
Case 2: 10.25%.
Case 3: 7.81%
Case 4: 8.19%.

Conclusion: Vishy should push for a win in both games, ainec

I'm impressed by the accuracy of BJJ's odds assessment!

Thanks, but don't for a second give me credit for getting it "right" off the top of my head. Obviously I ran numbers first (if that wasn't obvious then you clearly don't know me )

I did believe that you had run numbers (When first talking about Vishy's 35% chance, I meant the individual game 12 if he survives game 11). I was just surprised to find out that Vishy is drawing so thin.

A chess.com blog post retelling Yermo's and Gormally's broadcast has come out, and there were many good ideas in that broadcast. Ban the Berlin Wall from GM play! (Technically, it's easier to ban exchanging queens before move 30 or so, they bring most of the action and middlegame mate threats into the game; a queen loss by only one of the sides, e.g. for two rooks or rook + piece + compensation or a fancier sac, is of course nothing criminal.)

Magnus about to win game 11. GG Anand.

game time w00t

Well there you go