I blew the dust off the Monte Carlo spreadsheet I made for the 2013 match and made it even better. Here are the simulation results of CHESSTRADAMUS 2014, now with 10x the power*! Here are some EXCITING and UNPUBLISHED BEFORE NOW probabilities with the assumptions: a) expected score is 0,6/0,4** for Magnus according to ELO difference, for each draw rate the remaining score is divided in that ratio b) in case of a tie tiebreak odds are also 0,6/0,4. Betfair also had lines for Vishy +1,5 so I included that as well.
Code:
12 Draw-% 45 % 50 % 55 % 60 % 65 % 70 %
games Magnus 0,77 0,79 0,80 0,82 0,84 0,86
Tie 0,11 0,10 0,09 0,10 0,10 0,09
Vishy 0,12 0,11 0,10 0,08 0,06 0,04
Champ Magnus 0,84 0,85 0,86 0,88 0,90 0,92
Vishy 0,16 0,15 0,14 0,12 0,10 0,08
MC -1,5 Magnus 0,64 0,66 0,66 0,66 0,68 0,70
Vishy 0,36 0,34 0,34 0,34 0,32 0,30
*amount of simulated matches increased to 10k from 1k
** lol euro decimal separator