Tata Steel 2016 - Chess and Board Game Strategy

It's the first major tournament of the new year, and it will give us our first chance to finally see Wei Yi and Magnus Carlsen play each other. That's threadworthy, right?

I have Magnus at 38.1% to win the event and defend his crown. Also at 39% to defeat Wei Yi despite having the black pieces.

Shameless self promotion here, because I'm not retyping everything.

Quote

01-16-2016 , 04:19 AM

Golfdish

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,838

Great work as usual, always like reading your updates!

how often do tiebreaks occur (and occur involving magnus?) seems he does much better than average in these.

Quote

01-16-2016 , 11:40 AM

ScottTK

journeyman

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 355

Let's just hope Wei Yi - Carlsen isn't a Berlin.

Quote

01-16-2016 , 02:51 PM

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfdish

Great work as usual, always like reading your updates!

how often do tiebreaks occur (and occur involving magnus?) seems he does much better than average in these.

I had Magnus winning outright 31.9% of the time. Overall there was a 75.5% chance of a sole victor (including a 0.0208% chance of Van Wely winning outright!)

Quote

01-17-2016 , 01:53 PM

Rei Ayanami

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 11,685

Quote

01-17-2016 , 06:05 PM

The Yugoslavian

STTF HUC II Winner

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 25,040

Glad So escaped with a draw. That Hou Yifan is pretty good.

Quote

01-18-2016 , 08:32 AM

schundler

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 3,640

carlsen opts for morphy defense instead of berlin vs. wei yi

Quote

01-19-2016 , 05:44 PM

The Yugoslavian

STTF HUC II Winner

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 25,040

How about that Hou Yifan? If she just had a bit better technique she could be leading this thing!

Quote

01-19-2016 , 05:51 PM

Judit Bowlgar

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 104

hey, don't patronize her. girls are serious business in chess, you know. people don't take me seriously as a wc contender because i'm a girl. i wish the genders were more equal.

Quote

01-20-2016 , 06:15 AM

#10

Yeti

Abominable

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,208

Quote

01-21-2016 , 03:16 PM

#11

networth

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 2,208

I miss nakamura and Aronian. But at least Carlsen played a marshall attack and put the kid to the test. I took Carlsen to win on time tomorrow. Got 6-1. How bad a bet is it?

Quote

01-21-2016 , 03:26 PM

#12

The Yugoslavian

STTF HUC II Winner

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 25,040

I can't think of many games in these super tournaments where someone actually wins on time. The only one that comes to mind readily is where Carlsen didn't know the time control. So this seems like a really, really bad bet to me. Will there even be one game in this entire tournament where someone wins on time?

Or do you just mean wins due to time pressure and a blunder/mistake? In which case, I'm not sure how you rule on such a bet.

Quote

01-21-2016 , 05:17 PM

#13

networth

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 2,208

No I bet really losing on time. But I was hustled I think. Didn't know it was increments. I made the mistake of saying "I bet Tomashevsky loses on time" with someone who will call me on it.

Quote

01-21-2016 , 05:22 PM

#14

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

Yeah, odds of any professional game actually ending because a click hits zero are miniscule (especially if Ivanchuk isn't involved, lol).

Now losing in time pressure, on a mistake that wouldn't have happened with more time on the clock, is pretty common. Awfully hard to define precisely enough to adjudicate for betting purposes though, as mentioned.

Quote

01-21-2016 , 05:50 PM

#15

RoundTower

ɹǝʍoʇpunoɹ

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 14,563

Occasionally someone lets their time run out in a losing position, so I don't think you're drawing dead. But I think you needed more like 100-1.

Didn't someone flag recently in a playable position, I want to say in the World Cup? That's obviously much more rare.

Quote

01-22-2016 , 07:11 AM

#16

buffyslayer1

Coach MTT

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,553

Quote:

Originally Posted by RoundTower

Didn't magnus lose a game on time not so long ago with his flag falling where he misunderstood the time control?

Quote

01-22-2016 , 10:19 AM

#17

The Yugoslavian

STTF HUC II Winner

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 25,040

Yeah, that's the one moment of this I can remember from last years super tournaments. And that was huge news/super rare.

Quote

01-22-2016 , 10:40 AM

#18

networth

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 2,208

At least Tomashevsky giving me a sweat. 15 minutes for 22 moves dynamic position.

Quote

01-22-2016 , 11:05 AM

#19

Fabian

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,201

I mean, he'll still probably resign before his clock runs out, but pretty amusing situation now considering the bet you made. 2:30 to make 14 moves now.

Quote

01-22-2016 , 11:25 AM

#20

networth

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 2,208

Missed the end. Assume he resigned?

Quote

01-22-2016 , 11:39 AM

#21

The Yugoslavian

STTF HUC II Winner

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 25,040

I couldn't tell but I was sweating that a bit too simply because your bet was at least live at that point and if he resigned it's a bit weird since his position in the previous move went from bad, to basically the same amount of bad. So a weird spot to resign in.

Quote

01-22-2016 , 01:36 PM

#22

RoundTower

ɹǝʍoʇpunoɹ

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 14,563

I think your opponent should at least have to go through the live feed to prove it.

Quote

01-22-2016 , 10:06 PM

#23

lastcardcharlie

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,435

Big tournament, and 1st prize is a measly 10,000 euros.

Quote

01-24-2016 , 10:36 AM

#24

lastcardcharlie

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,435

Live computer analysis does not appear to be available on the site:

http://www.tatasteelchess.com/live

Am I missing something?

Quote

01-24-2016 , 12:07 PM

#25

schundler

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 3,640

http://en.chessbase.com/post/tata-st...y-on-playchess

Quote

Page 1 of 2

First

1 2

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 2

First

1 2

Last