OK, I don't think it is easy for him to force through f4-f5, but he protects f4 and gives his king a square on h1.

I think my plan should be to play ...f6, attacking the centre. It might be possible to do this immediately, but it doesn't sit quite right with me as I might not even be threatening ...fxe5, I don't really want to open the f-file with my king on e8. So if I can castle and then play f6, that would be my preferred option. However, 0-0 Rad1 f6 Rxd7 is complicated, so I think I need to analyse both lines thoroughly.

I have two main moves to choose from, f6 and 0-0 (planning f6). The forcing moves ...g5 and ...b4 look much less appealing than they did last move, for obvious reasons, and I don't know yet if I want to put my a8-rook on d8. And taking on e3 just looks bad.

A. 16...0-0 17. Rad1 (17. Bxc5 Nxc5 18. b4 just looks silly, Rac8 will be too good in the end. or 18. Nd5 Rae8) and now:
A1. 17...f6 18. Rxd7 Bxe3:
A1a: 19. Rxb7?! Qc8 (19...Bxf4? 20. Nd5 Qg5+ 21. Kh1 intending Rg1) looks like it wins material. 20. Rxg7+ Kxg7 21. exf6+ (21. Qxe3 can't be better) Rxf6 22. Qxe3 initially I was worried about this line, but now I think Black is just winning. Rooks are better than knights with so many open lines, he no longer has good central squares for his knight, and his king is probably more vulnerable than mine.
A1b: 19. Rd5 Bxf4 (19...b4!? 20. Qxe3 bxc3 21. Qxc3 looks at least equal for White, e.g. 21...fxe5 22. Rxe5 or 21...Rac8 22. Qb3) 20. exf6 (what else? Black is going to be up material) Qxf6 and I'm still a pawn up without obvious compensation.
A1c: 19. Rdd1!? hard to believe this move may be best, but it does allow his N the d5 square. Now if I play 19...Bxf4 20. Nd5 Qg5+ 21. Kh1 Bxe5 22. Rf5! appears to trap the Q: Qh4/h6 is met by Rh5. And if I don't take on f4, where does the B go? maybe 19...Bb6 20. Qxe4 Qxe4+ (20...Qg4+ 21. Kh1 and White's Q is always well placed) 21. Nxe4 fxe5 22. fxe5



this is an important position imo which I may not be qualified to evaluate. Black has some static advantages: bishop against knight, possibly better pawn structure. However White's knight is centralized, he has a big passed pawn and the 2 open files. If I can't win the pawn or tie all his pieces down to it, White must be at least OK. Some sample lines:
A1c(i) 22...Rfe8 23. Rd5 Rad8 24. Rfd1 Bc7 25. Rxd8 Rxd8 26. Rxd8+ Bxd8 and White has Nd6, Nc5 or maybe something more passive like Nf2-d3
A1c(ii) 22...Rae8 23. Rd5 Bc7 24. Nd6 Bxd6 25. exd6 Re2+ 26. Kg1 Rxc2 27. d7 Rd8 28. Re1 Kf7 29. Rf5+ Kg6 30. Rd5 Rc7 31. Red1 Kf6 32. R5d3 appears to be a draw
A1c(iii) 22...Rxf1 23. Kxf1 Re8 24. Rd5 Bc7 25. Nd6 Bx 26. ex Kf7 27. a4 b4 28. c4 bxc3 29. bx Ke6 30. Rd2 Rd8 31. Rb2 Rd7 32. Rb6 Kd5 33. Ke2 draw

Obviously these aren't exhaustive, but they should show White is probably OK in the diagram position.

A2. 17...Bxe3 18. Qxe3 f6 and he now has 19. Qxe4 (I think Nxe4 is good for me, if complicated) Qg4+ 20. Kh1 and now I'm actually in trouble. 20...Kh8 (20...fxe5 runs into 21. Qd5+ Rf7 22. fxe5+-, 20...Rad8 allows Qd5+ followed by e6, or maybe just e6) and White has a lot of possibilities: e6, Qxb7, Rg1, one of which is surely tactically winning

B. 16...f6 this risks getting my king caught in the centre, although hopefully I will win a pawn if that happens. Now:
B1. 17. exf6 Nxf6 (gxf6 or Bxe3 also might be possible, especially the former which can transpose to B2) 18. Bxc5 Qxc5 19. Nxe4 (what else? Rae1 0-0 is probably transposing) Qc6 20. Rae1 0-0. I think Black has a small edge in this position, White's king is still a little weak and the f4-pawn may be a problem in the endgame. And if I change my mind, at least Black can bail out with exchanges on e4 and should not be any worse in a pure rook ending.
B2. 17. Bxc5 Nxc5 18. exf6 gxf6 19. Rae1 0-0-0 (19...Qg6+ 20. Kh1 f5 is an extra pawn but not clear at all imo, he has Qh5+, Rd1, Rg1-g5, Nd5 ideas) 20. Nxe4? (but otherwise I think he is also worse) Nxe4 21. Qxe4 Rd2+ and he can't stop the second rank invasion, 22. Rf2?? Rg8+ or 22. Re2?? Qxe4+
B3. 17. Rad1. Now at worst I can transpose back to A by playing 0-0 which seems to be a draw, but with chances for him to go wrong. But there are also two other alternatives:
B3a. 17...Bxe3 18. Qxe3 fxe5 19. Qxe4 (19. Nxe4 0-0 20. fxe5 Qg4+ 21. Ng3 Rxf1 22. Rxf1 Re8 looks good for Black) Qg4+ (19...Qxe4+ 20. Nxe4 0-0-0 21. Nd6+ and Nf7 +/-) 20. Kh1 0-0-0 and Black has an extra pawn, but it's very unclear to me -- needs another look
B3b. 17...fxe5 18. Bxc5 Nxc5 19. fxe5 Qxe5 (what else? there aren't many good squares for her. maybe Qg5+ and Rd8 is a good way to try and swap off some of those troublesome major pieces, but he plays Nxe4 and still has pressure) 20. Rd5 with an enormous attack which I think is just +-
B4. 17. Nd5 Rc8 looks fine for me

So one way or the other, I think the critical line is 16...f6 17. Rad1 0-0. But playing ...f6 first doesn't seem to have a downside and if my analysis is right, it gives him more chances to go wrong plus it gives me the option of line B3a. Basically it looks more risky but more flexible.

Of course this is a lot of analysis and there are certainly holes to be found, but I hope I have the general assessment right. in an OTB game I would maybe play 0-0 because there is less time to check all these lines.

OR SO I THOUGHT...

I was all but ready to click the post button when I did a last blunder check. I've left the full post for your interest! 16...f6 leads to 17. e6! and I think Black can resign. The queen is overloaded, after 17...Qxe6 18. Bxc5 Nxc5 19. Qh5+ he wins a piece and I still can't castle. So 0-0 looks better after all. I don't see any cheapo tactics here that I haven't already considered, 0-0 is just the safer move after all.

actually the e6 motif throws a lot of my analysis into question. after Rad1 (only move I really considered, but there are others that looked less critical) f6, what if he goes e6 now?

It certainly doesn't look as bad as the line above, I can go Qxe6 and get R+PP against B+N or I can go Bxe3 and see if he can make anything out of Rxd7 with a similar idea to A1a, probably not very good, or exd7 which is more worrying but maybe still OK. Either way I'll worry about it after his move

The tactic radar has just gone off!
Nd5 looks very tempting ... and tough to meet tactically!
However I better not get carried away with it just yet ...
Moves to consider:
Nd5, Rad1, Kh1, Bxc5, Qf2
Qf2 forces the issue with the c5 bishop, though it does give up (temporarily at least) some white squares (g4, h5) on the king-side, which might be useful to cover. Although I want to swap bishops (in the long-term at least), I'm not sure that this is the ideal time to do it & the resulting position after Bxe3 Qxe3 can see black playing Rac8 fairly comfortably, with annoying pressure down the c-file.
Bxc5 can potentially win a pawn after Nxc5 b4 Ne6 (or d7) Qxe4, however this does make the weakness of the c-pawn now more serious (it would now be a backward pawn on a semi-open file) & ultimately a pawn that is difficult to defend. Alternatives to b4, such as Rad1 can be met fairly simply by R (a or f) d8 to challenge the file immediately.
Kh1 is a useful move, both making my king safer & allowing heavy pieces to move to the g-file, however there it may be more advisable to leave such a defensive move until a later time when there are less alternatives, or my king is in some actual danger.
Rad1 seems like a logical continuation of the plan to develop my remaining undeveloped pieces, with d1 being an obvious choice as it is the only open file on the board, so control of it will no doubt be important in the future. There may also be ideas of Rad1, Bxc5 & Rd4 to put further pressure on the e4 pawn.
Nd5 is the move that immediately comes to mind, however ... with the potential for a rather serious fork after Bxc5 with Ne7+. It also keeps the possibility of b4 as a tactical option if need be.
Obviously if black plays Bxe3, then Ne7+ wins the queen & the same applies if black makes a 'normal' move like Rc8 & blindly recaptures after N (or R) xc5. The black queen doesn't have many safe squares to go to, as most are covered by either the pawns on e5 & f4, or the queen on e2. At present, the only 'safe' squares for the queen are Qg6 & Qe6. Qg6 is check, however as mentioned in previous notes, I can then play Kh1 & follow up with Rg1, Qg4 & I have a ready-made king-side attack. Qe6 leaves Nc7 on, however it does not win an exchange immediately as black has Qg6+ followed by moving the rook (to, say c8), so once again its as much about the potential that Nd5 can do, as it is about the reality of the move.
What can black do in response?
Normal rook moves like Rac8 or Rfd8 don't seem to solve the problem of e7, while Rfe8 seems like an unnatural square for the rook (as well as allowing Nc7). Perhaps Kh8 is the best way to avoid issues for black, but this allows me to continue with Rad1, with ideas of controlling the d-file. Qe6 is a possibility, based on Qg6+ as a defence to the immediate Nc7, however once again Rad1 seems like a logical continuation, following through with the activation of my rooks.

I don't like White's position. After Kh8 the d5 knight seems to look better than is. And g5 at some point down the road seems like it could be dangerous for white. It seems like white has been misevaluating the position for a long time now

I was going to play Rae8 but maybe Kh8 is better

I really have spent too long without paying attention to this game, still haven't had a chance to get down to analyse it properly. Normally I try to spend at least 15 min on any move that might be critical, sometimes an hour. Here I've looked at it a few times but haven't really analysed any concrete variations.

The N on d5 threatens e7, which forks my Q, and will fork her even if she goes to a lot of other squares I like, like g6 or c6. I could move her, e.g. Qe6?! Nc7 Qg6+ Kh1 Rc8 or Rd8, but this gives him possibilities of f5 or g-file pressure or something. I think she's on her best square, blockading the pawns, holding e4, etc. So my two main candidate moves are Rae8 and Kh8.

Rae8 is a "developing" move, especially since I have my eye on opening up the centre a bit. But on the other hand after Rad1 I might wish I was on the d-file after all, I'd rather wait and see with that rook. Also, now that he doesn't have a route to d6, the f7-f6 plan is less urgent, although it's still probably the right plan. Maybe even better now that he can't meet it with exf.

Kh8 on the other hand stays away from checks forever. It also makes the king a bit safer against any possible g-file play or checks on the white diagonal (e.g. after a2-a4, which I think he may be planning since he has kept that rook there so long). It slightly misplaces the king in the endgame, but if we are going to talk about endgames, I have an extra passed pawn after all.

So still no concrete variations, but I don't see anything to worry about. Bxc5 Nx is fine as usual (another reason not to put the Q on e6 right now). If a4, maybe f6 immediately. If Rad1, maybe Rad8 (or Bxe3 and f6). I like Black's position now.

thread saver to make him think I've been analysing the position non-stop for 10 days (could be slightly nsfw):


actually, one concrete variation that came to mind while I was looking for those: what if he can allow f6 and then take it anyway? Something like 18. a4 f6 19. exf6 Qxd5 (probably best, but maybe there's something else) 20. Rad1 Qe6 21. fxg7+ Kxg7 22. Rxd7+ Qxd7 23. Bxc5. Now he is the exchange down but he could grab back a pawn and it's possible my king is not safe on the dark squares. I think here Rf6-g6 and Kg8 and Black is OK on the light squares, but on the other hand it's now clear that 18. a4 wasn't the best "extra" move for him here, so he could get something else with more compensation. 18. Rad1 and I basically am not planning to go f6 immediately anyway, because of such tactics. 18. Rg1!? even just 18. Kh1!? Anyway I can look at it in detail next move.

So it looks like its the 'safety first' option from RT ... such a letdown!
Looks like its just 'business as usual' as a result. I want to take control of the d-file before black does, so Rad1 looks like the most natural move.
Ideas that could be useful in the future include Rd1-d2 & Rf1-d2; b4, with idea of rounding up the e-pawn with Rd4 etc; possibly h3 & Qg4 to swap queens & make use of the better positions of my pieces.
Options for black include Rac8, with pressure down the c-file. Although I would like to play c3 to blunt the effect of the rook, it leaves d3 available for the black knight (d7-c5-d3), so Rf2 may be necessary. This might mean a change in how to oduble on the d-file, with Rf2-d2 being a way to make it happen, possibly combined with the h3 & Qg4 idea.
Another possibility could be f6, which is interesting in that black may need to play gxf6 in response. I'm not sure if having the g-file open is good, bad or otherwise for me, but its definitely interesting.
Another idea for me could be playing b4 & following it up with c4 almost immediately, with the idea of recapturing on e3 (and c4) with the knight ... and then head for d6 with the knight.

1st threadsaver is incredible. Almost perfect 10 imo. Is she same person as threadsaver2?

Asking this question in a spoiler may not get you an answer so quickly, since RoundTower isn't going to read it until the game is over and all

solid trap by Jewb IMO

...f6 is still the main plan, the question is should I play it immediately, or make a preparatory move. I have 3 main candidate moves: ...f6, ...Bxe3, and ...Rad8.

A. 18...f6 19. e6 is again an issue (19. exf6 gxf6 (19...Nxf6 20. Bxc5 Nxd5 21. Bxf8 Nxf4+ 22. Rxf4 +-) is probably good for me). I think I have to go Bxe3 20. exd7 Ba7 (Bc5 b4 Bd6 Nb6 +-). This might be OK for Black, but White should get a lot of tricks based on the passed pawn. even something simple like 21. Rfe1 Rad8 22. Nc3 e3 23. Rd5, though obviously not forced, maintains the passed pawn on d7 and gives White more play.

B. 18...fxe3 19. Nxe3 Qg6+ (19...Qe6 20. Rd6 looks horrible) 20. Kh1 and White has so much coming: Rd6, f5, g-file pressure. Moving the N to the queenside will only make that worse.

C. 18...Rad8 almost by process of elimination. I guess if ...f6 is not going to be feasible then Rfd8 should also be considered, but I like to keep that option open. Also it's not clear I would ever have anything on the c-file, and Rad8 steps out of some possible Nc7 tactics e.g. if my Q was on e6.

Now there doesn't seem to be anything forcing for White: e.g. 19. Bxc5 Nxc5 20. Nc3 f6 21. b4 (otherwise I think Black is also doing well) Ne6 22. Qxe4 Qg4+ (not Qxe4 when N may get the d6 square) 23. Kh1 fxe5 24. fxe5 Qh3 and I think he cannot defend all the weaknesses. Not totally forced after 19. Bxc5 but an example of what happens if he tries to force things too hard, basically b2-b4 is pretty much always going to be bad unless it leads to something wonderful immediately.

So he should do something non-forcing like 19. Kh1 or 19. Rd2. I haven't done all the analysis but it looks like Rad8 makes me much better prepared for ...f6 (it removes the R from a fork on c7, and defends the N) which I can probably play after either of those moves.

I now feel I have improved all my pieces. So my next move shouldn't be a piece-shuffling manoeuvre, because I can't make any of them better (it's not really feasible to airdrop the knight to f3 or somewhere). Although Rf8 is only well placed in the context of an ...f6 break.

something I didn't consider was ...b4 immediately (maybe he could have done this last move either). then Bxe3 Nxe3 looks like one of the lines I was worried about, except that he has covered his queenside with holes.

Something like 20...Qg6+ 21. Kh1 Qc6 looks right to me. Then he can try Nf5 hitting g7 and d6, or he can go Rd6. I'm not sure what the best way to meet this is, it actually looks quite bad for Black. So instead 21...Nb6 covering d6 and f5, at least for the moment. It's clear that he will get at least some counterplay with f4-f5-f6 (maybe) but it should take him a while to actually threaten mate and meanwhile I can maybe attack his e5 pawn. I guess I'm not winning after all, this line looks fairly critical. I can hope he doesn't play it, but otherwise I can't do much, just wait and figure out something if he does play.

So he can solve 2 problems at once: Rfe8 and then Nf8-g6-h4-f3!

OK, so quite a few posts after moves ... I suppose it gives me things to look at after the game is finished!
Rad8 has good and bad points for me ...
The good: the rook hasn't gone to c8, so many of my concerns about the potential weakness of the c-pawn later in the game may not be quite so important, as it now takes black an extra tempo to get the rook to the c-file.
The bad: It now looks like black's plan involves f6 & undermining my pawns centre, which is kind of inconvenient for me!
It also takes away many of the 'waiting' moves that I might like to play in this position, such as h3, with the idea of Qg4, as black can simply play f6 & my centre crumbles.
If I'm able to respond to f6 with e6 (without losing the pawn for nothing), then I don't mind if black gets f6 in, however how this can actually be done is not so easy to envisage.
This makes me inclined to play a more forcing move, of which the obvious choices are b4 & Bxc5. The issue is that both of these moves have problems associated with them ...
19. Bxc5 Nxc5 allows black to bring his knight to a good square, where it protects e4, as well as having Ne6 as a possibility, putting further pressure on the somewhat tenuous pawn centre that I have. The rook on d8 threatens to exchange rooks should the knight ever move & this is something that I may not want in the position.
If I follow up with a move like b4 to move the knight away, black has the possibility of playing Na4, with tactics involving Nc3 now becoming possible. The f6 idea to undermine my centre is still there & my king is still somewhat vulnerable.
Other possibilities include 20.Qf2, which encourages a move like Ne6 & black can continue with the central undermining plan, or possibly even head for a line like 20...Ne6 21.Ne3 Qg6+ 22.Kh1 f5, which protects the weak e4 pawn & fixes the f4 pawn, which will need constant support from pieces.
20.b4 simply encourages black to exchange & exploit the pawn weaknesses on the queenside, so a move like Qe6 looks to be good for black.
20.Ne3 allows Qg6+, with constant concerns about king safety & the black knight in a superior position (most likely e6), as well as needing to be mindful of potential rook swaps.

19.b4 pretty much forces black to play 19...Bxe3
I have two possible recaptures, Nxe3 & Qxe3.
Qxe3 takes the queen away from controlling key white squares on the king-side (g4, h5) & does nothing to stop black from continuing with the plan of undermining the centre with f6, which in this case seems good for black.
Nxe3 attacks the queen, which has to retreat to either e6 or g6. Qe6 is good for me after Rd6, followed by Rfd1, which either wins a piece, or ties up almost all of black's pieces, depending on where the queen goes after Rd6.
The reason I'm not just jumping straight into this line is that Qg6+ is an awkward move for white to deal with. If I play Qg4, then black can simply play Qxg4 Nxg4 & Nb6, with the idea of playing Nc4 or d5, which looks fine for black as I don't have control of the all-important d-file and the weakness of my pawns on b4, c2, f4, etc will be much easier targets than the b7 & e4 pawns of black, particularly if I have to play Ne3 in response to Nb6 to try to cover some of the squares the black knight can go to.
Kh1 looks like another reasonable option, with potential follow-up ideas of Rg1, Qg4, Nf5, etc, targetting the g-file & the g7 pawn in particular. The problem with this is that these threats are easily stopped by simply moving the queen out of the way & playing g6 ... and black still has the weak pawns to target elsewhere on the board with moves like Nb6-c4, as well as potential ideas on the h1-a8 diagonal with a move like Qc6 ... and the position is fairly straightforward for black to play, which is another issue!
Kf2 is the other response to Qg6+.
This looks at first sight to be a bit odd, but has a few tactical advantages.
Black can't play f6 here, as e6, followed by e7 is crushing, which makes the obvious attempt to exploit the king being back in the f-file a problem.
An obvious looking move like Qh6 (hitting f4 & h2) has the tricky Ng2 in response, which makes the h-pawn immune (due to Rh1, trapping the queen) & now threatens Qxe4 (finally restoring material equality).
The knight on g2 is surprisingly good defensively, as it covers the possible queen checks (f4, h4, h2) & it also allows the rook to be maintained on the d-file, with no need for white to trade rooks.
It is not entirely clear how black should proceed from here. Both Qxe4 & Rd6 are strong threats & the plan to open up the f-file with f6 has its problems.
Having said that, I'm still not entirely comfortable with the position (I wasn't exactly playing the opening to have a 'defensive setup' involving Kf2 & Ng2 around move 20 ... and I do have long-term issues on the queenside that can not be easily resolved.
There is also the possibility of other moves after Kf2, like Nb6, which although it does not have any immediate threat, does a lot to stop many moves that I might want to play in that position.
In short ... time for something committal ... no turning back now ... 19. b4!? Lets hope it works out!

I'm not a fan of whites position. Basially I don't think black has anything forcing enough after ...Bxe3 20. Qxe3 Qg6 21. Kf2.

If whire don't have anything then black just need to play something like Nc6-c4 and the should be won

not happy to see that.

I don't see anything other than Bxe3. Qg6+?! Kh1 Bxe3 transposes at best, but Bx first is marginally more flexible. Also it gives him the chance to play Qxe3, which doesn't seem like a good move in comparison (I will just play f6 I expect). Qg6+ will probably be forced next, because I can't get away with stuff like Qe6?! Rd6 Qxa2? Rfd1 +-

slightly nsfw threadsaver:

I don't really think I'm losing, in fact I might be better, but this complicates things where I thought I was going to go into an endgame with a clear edge.

Thoughts already outlined above ... and its pretty much a forced recapture anyway ...

I really don't like the look of Qe6 Rd6. Qg6+ doesn't really gain a tempo in the long run, because Kh1 is probably a very useful move for him anyway, but it buys me a move for the moment.

Almost certainly going to play Nb6 next, but maybe Qc6 is worth thinking about as well. It depends which is the lesser evil, allowing a hack with the f-pawn or allowing Rd6.

I'm still not entirely convinced about this position, but I think I need to continue down the path I outlined on the previous post ... there was no turning back once I decided to play b4 ... so Kf2 it is!
The line I'm most concerned about is 21...Qh6 22.Ng2 Nb6 & potentially a lot of pawns might fall, which may or may not be good for me!
Qb6 is another idea for black, but it also takes away a key square from the knight, which in turn keeps the rook on d8, although there may be circumstances when it could be a problematic move.
Let's see what happens!

Wow, I didn't even consider this move. Didn't think anything other than Kh1 made sense. The K has to be more vulnerable here and he's interrupted the lines of his Q and his KR.

21...Qc6 (21...Qb6 is the same or worse) 22. Rd6 Qc8 23. Rfd1 looks very strong for White. 21...f6 is obviously out because e6 and e7 wins material. So realistically I am only going to consider Nb6 and Qh6, and it will mostly hang on whether Qh6 is tactically good or not.

A. 21...Qh6 threatens f4 and h2. Mostly f4, but I could be convinced to take the h-pawn as well if my Q will escape and not give him a big attack. Probably there are some traps involving Qxh2 though, this is a possible reason for him to play it. But Qxf4 is definitely a threat I think he has to deal with.
A1. 22. Ng4 Qh4+ 23. K any Nb6 and the N seems to be misplaced
A2. 22. Ng2 Qb6+ 23. Ne4 (23. Qe3 Qxe3+ 24. Nxe3 Nb6 25. Nf5 Nc4 and Black looks good) f6 24. Rd6 Qc7 gains an important tempo over another line, I forget which one. 25. Nd5 Qb8 looks good for Black.
A3. 22. Qg4 has some powerful threats of Nf5 and Rxd7. Then:
A3a. 22...Qxh2+ 23. Ke1 Nb6 24. Nf5 looks strong for White, even for two pawns. e.g. Nb6 Nd6 with threat of Nf7. There's a nice trap here in 24. Rh1? Rd2+! Rxd2 Qxh1 when I don't think he has compensation, but I don't think I can risk this.
A3b. 22...f5 23. Nxf5 (23. Qg3!? Nb6? 24. Nxf5, but maybe 23...g5 is playable, with a lot of threats) Rxf5 24. Qxf5 (what else? 24. Rxd7 Rxf4+ 25. Ke2 Qxh2+ 26. Ke3 Rxd7 must be winningn for me, even if there is no mate after Qxd7 I can give a few checks and play h6.) and now it's a question of whether I can mate him/perpetual check. I'm not going to post all my analysis on this but it I'm convinced he can escape to d2 or h1 (probably he has a choice even).
A4. is 22. Ke1 which I think is also promising for him, e.g. 22...Nb6 23. Rxd8 Rxd8 24. Nf5. I was planning to look at this much more, but it looks like 22. Qg4 busts 21...Qh6 anyway.

B. 21...Nb6 guarding d6 and with big ideas of coming to c4. Now:
B1. I was worried about 22. f5, but it looks like Qh6 is much better now with effectively an extra tempo. 23. Qg4 Qxh2+ and Qxe5, or 23. Ke1 Qh4+ 24. Rf2 Rxd1+ 25. Qxd1 Rd8, in either case Black is much better imo.
B2. 22. Rg1 Qh6! again! 23. Qg4 Rxd1 24. Rxd1 (24. Nxd1 Nd5 looks good) Qxh2+ and White has been driven back, he is not co-ordinated enough to attack me and doesn't have enough pieces imo.
B3. 22. Rxd8 looks like all that is left. 22...Rxd8 23. Rd1 Rd7!? intending Qe6 or Qh6 or maybe Qc6 looks like a good way to hold on to the extra pawn at least for a few moves. There's also 23...Rxd1 (not 23...Rc8 Rd6, of course) 24. Qxd1 h6. In either case I think Black is a little better. In the last one I have to look at the complicated N endgame: 25. Qd6!? Qxd6 26. exd6 Kg8 (maybe not) 27. Nd5 Nd7. I think Black will always be at least OK here, if I can round up the d6-pawn White should have very few winning chances with the funny looking queenside pawns.

I don't see any more possible 22nd move alternatives for White, but he has been pretty consistent in finding moves I have totally failed to consider. In any case it looks like Nb6 is best.

I suppose I've gone back to not predicting moves ... oh well.
Nb6 aims at my weak squares c4 & d5, however it takes away some of the pressure on my e5 pawn.
I'm not so concerned about the c4 square, but d5 is a concern as from there a knight would attack both f4 & b4, so I need to keep d5 covered while f4 & b4 are vulnerable.
The fact that the rooks can now be swapped on the d-file takes away some of the ideas like Rg1, or at the very least reduces its effectiveness.
Its not all doom & gloom though, as I do still have the central pawns, as well as a knight & queen in useful positions. As such, the Ng2 defensive idea I mentioned a few moves ago seems like an idea that I'm not going to be using, preferring to run the king towards h1 if there are threats to the king-side.
As for candidate moves, the first one that comes to mind is f5, trying to force the queen to a worse square. If Qh6, then Ng4 looks like the right idea, as it both attacke the queen again, as well as defending h2 & e5. It also opens up another attacking idea on the king based on f6 to weaken the dark squares. If Qg5, then Qg4 looks like the best response. I'm happy to swap queens here as it allows my king to improve its position & go after the e4 pawn (and help support the e5 & f5 pawns). If Qc6, I like Qg4, with potential pressure on the king-side.
Other options seem less attractive. As mentioned before, I don't want to move the Ne3 or Rd1 as it would give up the d5 square to black's knight. Rg1 allows Qh6, attacking both the f4 & h2 pawns, and the Nd5 threat means the Ng2 defensive idea is not something I want to play. There's no real other attractive option, and I think I need to keep playing actively in this position & generate threats, otherwise the weaknesses in my position will become too much of a problem.