Quote:
Originally Posted by Dynasty
This is an interesting article, but I would like to see it also adjust for the number of players. Comparing #11-#50 in 1972 to #11-#50 in 1990 doesn't mean much if there are 5 times as many rated players in 1990 as there were in 1972. You'd have to compare 1990's #11-#211 (averaged) vs. 1972's #11-#50 (if you wanted to ignore the top 10, as this study did). Or something like that anyway, the details of exactly how best to adjust would be something I'd have to think about.
The author's conclusion that something changed in 1985 is reasonable based on the data he presents, but it's entirely possible that that "something" was an explosion in number of chess players. Does anyone know how many people were on FIDE's rating lists in various years, or where to find that info? Or for that matter, does anyone know how many titled GMs there were? That could be an alternative adjustment factor to use...