Hi:

I am interested in making a chess prop bet and wondering if there would be any market.

My main idea is a rating prop bet. I'm currently rated 2136 USCF on the August Supplement and my most up to date rating is 2128. I want to bet, at 1.5 to 1 (against me) odds, that I can make at least 2250 USCF exactly one year from when the bet is made.

I'm 22 years old, almost 23, and I've been rated 2000+ since I was 16 or so. However, in the last basically three years I've been completely stuck between 2100 and 2190, and am on a downswing now. Anybody who's been over 2000 knows how tough it can be to come by rating points.

I play a lot of tournaments, but I haven't actually studied the game in over a year (apart from looking at games with Rybka for half an hour a week or so).

I'm a professional poker player, and I'd like to do this bet for a lot of money (10k+ if possible) because I'd have to work way harder at the game than I ever have, play a ****ton of tournaments, and the opportunity cost of not playing poker during this time is huge.

I'm DrArpadElo on Stars, CofC-Indiana on ICC. I'm at the US Open in Indianapolis currently (in my hometown).

Thoughts?

I'm rated 2120 FIDE and i know what you're talking about

Great way to get yourself motivated, i'm not really inclined to put money against though.

http://www.uschess.org/msa/MbrDtlMain.php?12743596 , btw

I'm pretty sure you could bribe your way to 2250 for far less than 10k. Anybody who takes that bet is a moron.

Exactly my thoughts. It'd be way too easy to play people you're at least an acquaintance with and have them throw games to you for a moderate fee $.

You can say "oh what are the odds I would actually play against player ABC, DEF, and XYZ.." well you could sign up with a few of those people in a Quad. And do that every weekend.

Not to say that you Ever would cheat and rig it by paying off people, but no way should anyone put up a serious amount of money against you.

------------------------- Side-note ---------------------------------------------------

This is actually making me think of that 9 year old (almost 10 yr old) kid, Nicholas Nip who played in what 3 matches against local "masters" who were PAID to play against the kid. Because of these matches he gained enough rating points (80 rating points in total) to beat Hikaru Nakamura's record of 10 yrs and a few months to make Master. One of these "masters" the kid played against was the very popular Eric Schiller ! Also of note, Nip is only 2211 right now, take away 80, and he's only 2131 -- never breaking Nakamura's record in the process.

http://www.uschess.org/msa/XtblMain....42971-10346100

All this effort, money spent, and Cheating (imho) to break a record and obtain $0 money. Imagine if $10,000 was on the line with the record.

My point exactly.

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I've also played you a few times on ICC, and afaik you are a cool guy. All the best in the US Open -- I would have played (would have Loved to actually) but no way I was going to Indiana for it.

Also since you said you're a poker pro: the obligatory questions:

What game/s do you play?

What stake/s - limit/s do you play?

Which sites do you play on?

and

Do you think online poker is rogged?

Best of luck with this, but I seriously doubt that you will get 10k in action.

OT: say hi to Sal Bercys and Gerald Roberts if you see them in US Open. You should probably know Gerald, as he is from Elkhart, Indiana.

Good luck getting any action. Gaining 100 rating points (from your average rating over the last year of 2150) shouldn't be much of a problem. All you'd really have to do would be to go 4/5 in some weekend tournament where you upset a pair of 2300's and a 2200, and boom, you're practically there already. If you play enough tournaments that should be happening anyway. It's called normal variance.

why would anyone take a bet where u study nonstop for a year only to try to gain 100 pts. you are obviously young with some talent, no one with any brain would put up 10k against you, not to mention you could just get lucky in one or two tourneys and get over it.

To actually qualify for a good # of bonus points from one tournament he'll need to perform around 2500 elo. In that case with one such event he would be nearly half way there.

2250? I'm sure you'll make it if you put in the effort. Make it 2400 and we can talk.

OP (and anyone else) How much for a prop bet of your rating, to get 3 IM Norm's in one year. You don't have to be awarded the title by the end of the 12 months, 3 Norm's would be good enough to win the prop bet.

Seems like OP is trying to get 10k for doing something he really wants to do but can't justify the cost of. Maybe register a charity?

Anyone seen Seinfeld?

I thought of this.. you May use this excellent idea OP:

Accobra,

Do you live/play in Canada? This would be far easier with the Canadian rating system than it would be in the U.S. (I was born in Canada, now I live in teh US).

Sorry for leaving this thread.

Nah, more of a challenge/motivation type thing.

It seems like people think this is too easy. Curious, what do you think an appropriate bet would be at 1 to 1 odds?

If I had the money and I knew for a fact that the OP was truly 2136 USCF in strength (and it could somehow be ensured that no cheating would take place) I would take that bet and give up to 1000:1. IM strength is no less than 2450 USCF strength at the very minimum, so the OP would have to gain more than 300 rating points in strength in a year. For a 2100+ player who is not underrated this is just impossible. I would give up to 100:1 that the player couldn't become an FM (~2350 USCF) in one year.

If you seriously mean you would give up 1000-1 odds betting a 2100 could not make 3 IM norms in a year, that is the worst bet I have ever seen in my life.

Making the norms wouldn't necessitate a huge jump in strength at all; it would just require 3 great tournaments.

I'll take the IM prop under the condition that the funds are escrowed in an interest bearing account of my choosing. I'd like to wager around a million dollars as well.

and I get 5% vig cuz it was my idea.

I agree 2136-----> I.M is a massive leap most 2100s will never ever make. Of course, if the guy is 11 and 2100 that's another issue but I would probably make a bet on a 30 year old 2100 never becoming an I.M

Obviously palinca. The bet isn't about the 2100 becoming IM. It's about making 3 norms in a year. Imagine if the guy finds a way to play like 30+ IM norm tournaments a year (something that would obviously be worth it if the bet was for a large amount at 1000:1 odds) and massively overperforms in 3 of them.

He doesn't have a shot at 3 norms either.

Ok, 3 norms is slightly easier than becoming an I.M (where you need 3 norms + a minimum rating of 2400 I think), but still very very difficult for a 2100 player. With such a rating, he can't enter closed tournaments for I.M norms, can only play opens, and only the biggest opens offer the possibility of getting norms because you need to play a number of foreigners and IMs.
I would bet against it at 10-1 for sure.

This.

I would put $1,000 on myself and make a cool mirrion.