Me three! Keep em comin.

6/8 is pretty good I feel like. Let's keep on going!

QF:

Ding - my heart says Grischuk, but my brain says very loudly DING DING DING. I sat there for a bit trying to convince myself that Grischuk has a statistically realistic chance to win this match, but in the end I couldn't. He is a bit below in classical, a bit below in rapid, and a bit below in blitz. However, he is a bit of a miracle man, so he might pull a rabit out of his hat to surprise Mister Ding, but the chance is too slim to validate a pick IMO. If he survives till Armaggedon, then I consider Grischuk an instant favorite with either color.
Yu Yangyi - I have a feeling that I will lose this one despite who I pick, cause Vitiugov is just out there to **** with my picks. He is proving me to be a complete idiot at judging his level of play, but I don't learn from my mistakes and still consider Yu a big favorite, as I feel like he is not worse in classical, and much better in faster controls. Vitiugov is not known as a rapid/blitz specialist, and even in this competition he has only went to playoffs once - versus Huschenbeth (even lower rated than him in rapid). Yu in the playoffs will be a massive favorite, but will he get there? Karjakin and So didn't.
Radjabov - my two upset picks from last round will battle it out. I sadly sense that Xiong's journey will end here. He somehow got Giri all rattled with his crazy play, and Duda was very accommodating in creating enterprising games, but I think that Xiong will hit a wall in Radjabov. Radjabov, even though overall probably weaker than Giri, is a better fit to beat Xiong - he is too experienced to get easily rattled, he can definitely hold his own in tactical skirmishes, and he is just better than Xiong in strategical aspects of the game (for now). I will absolutely not be sad if I am wrong on this one, though!
Vachier - and finally, the pearl of this round. We all remember their epic battle in the semifinal of the last World Cup, where Aronian finally went through in Armageddon. To me, this is 50-50. Even though I think that Vachier is currently overall stronger than Aronian, but Aronian's experience and past record in this particular format speak for themselves. It is going to be an incredible match and since I have to pick one, I am going with MVL this time, mainly because people can turn superhuman in their efforts to get revenge.

I got Xiong to win the whole World Cup.

Come with me if you want to live!

Grischuk will win if they make it to Armageddon? Before the armaggedonthon Norway tournament this year didn't he recount a bunch that he's played where he tragically always loses. Then he proceeded to lose a bunch in that tournament?

Aronian choked away a -4.80 winning position.

Yu Yangyi somehow wins Rook+3 pawns vs Rook+2 pawns on same side and then in Armageddon game he plays 2. f4?! vs the French and sacks 2 pawns foolishly, was busted, and somehow got 2 pigs on the seventh with victory.

Yu Yangyi, this song is for you:

(NSFW I guess so..)

All hail the prophet.

4/4 baby. Can't say it wasn't close or my picks weren't extremely lucky, but I will take it!

Now the two easiest picks of the entire competition incoming:

DING - give poor Yu a rest day, fools! Apart from Ding simply being a better player, he has only played 16 total games in this competition, while Yu has played 25! Including an absolutely crazy match yesterday, going to Armageddon. I honestly don't know what FIDE is thinking - it is obvious that the main prize of this entire cup is getting to candidates, the final and the extra money is just a bonus. So how do they not give a free day before the semifinal, I. E. THE MATCHES WHERE THE ENTRANTS TO THE CANDIDATES ARE DECIDED, is beyond me. Anyway, I like Yu a lot, but it would take a superhuman effort from him to defeat all these odds against him, and Ding does not seem like a guy who will collapse under pressure (even though he might crack, a bit).

RADJABOV - yes, you read that right. MVL is slightly better in all formats, but it is definitely not a crushing edge like some might think. What he for sure does have, is a tendency to collapse under pressure. He has said in a recent interview himself that he understands that the window to become WcH or at least get to the match vs Carlsen is closing, so the pressure will be immense, and a lot of it coming from within. Radjabov on the other hand is sort of just happy to be here and don't think he feels nearly as much pressure as MVL.

There are also chess related factors - they haven't played much (due to Radjabov's hiatus, mainly), so MVL's opponent-specific preparation, which very often gives him an edge, won't be nearly as potent this time around, coupled with a fact that Radjabov is an excellent theoretician himself. Radjabov is also in an excellent form and should be fairly fresh, having played just 16 games up until this point - and some of them versus Mamedyarov, so we can sort of halfway discount those, so he actually played like 14. Even though MVL has also played only 18 (that's still like an extra match), but he had some close and very draining encounters versus Jakovenko and Aronian.

So, I add all that up and get a super easy Radjabov pick.

LETS GO!

What's interesting, is that if Ding and Yu are close friends then Ding should just throw it to Yu so China has 2 guys in the Candidates. I have no idea how the Chinese guys relate to each other or are managed by their federation but my guess is that is much more of a possibility than let's say, Caruana getting to the semi's with So and then letting him through. For instance, if both Azeri's made it to the semi's and one already had a spot in the Candidates, I can definitely see the other making it to the finals.

But barring that, if Ding is set on winning I agree that Yu is in trouble.

I kind of hate Radjabov but it's hard not to respect him. Doesn't he basically only play candidate cycle stuff + Gashimov? How the hell is he in form for these tournaments?

Pulling for MVL but everyone has been talking about how he's "off form" recently (although he seems to be winning things with this "bad form" lol).

Well done on that analysis Radjabov vs. MVL, I think it was dead on.

I'm on fire baby! And the last pick of this whole competition is...

RAD... DING LIREN - I wish it was Radjabov, but, similarly as with my writeup in Ding - Grischuk matchup, I just cannot convince myself it is possible enough to warrant a pick. The pressure is more or less gone for both (actually, Ding didn't really have that much of it in the first place, since he had a place in candidates pretty much either way), so the level of play will be the deciding factor. The quality of play usually seriously drops in the end of these competitions as players are exhausted, and this is where Radjabov's chances are. However, Ding just seems like a robot pretty much, so those chances are very slim. If I were Radjabov, I would try to play hyper agressive in the classical portion (lets not forget its 4 games, not 2) and try to end the match there. If they go to rapid and blitz, Ding will be a massive favorite, but if Radjabov survives those, Armageddon is basically a lottery. Mainly just rooting for a great match, either way it ends I will be content hope you enjoyed these as much as I enjoyed writing them, but the next ones will probably only come on the next World Cup

There's still a match for 3rd place, right?
Gotta give us your pick between Yu and MVL

It actually matters a bit too, because to be eligible for the wild card to the candidates this cycle you have to have been the highest non-qualifying finish in a qualifying event (grand swiss, grand prix, or world cup) or be top ten in the world. So Yu, at least, has wild card eligibility at stake in that third place match.

Oh LOL, I didn't even realize!

Poor Yu still can't go home, incredible.

And that is why my pick is MVL. Even though he is probably quite a broken man at the moment, and even though he might have less at stake, the exhaustion of Yu has to decide this match, there is just no way. Yu has played a ridiculous 29 games already (MVL has played 20) and I am quite unsure how he is able to still look at the chessboard after all this. The fact that he is a Chinese Robot (just a slightly weaker version that Ding) helps, but still, this is way too much. For his health's sake I just hope they play 2 classical games, and not 4...

The fact that he has a lot at stake, as BJJ pointed out, might give him one last boost, which, coupled with the state MVL must be in right now, might give Yu a shot at this. But I give that like 25% tops, so no upset pick from me this time around

Stereotyping Chinese chess players as robots isn't a good look.

Way to see something that isn't there.

By the way, I didn't even know such a stereotype even exists (does it?!)

Chinese is their nationality.

Robot, in my understanding at least, can be used to describe a person who performs something like a machine, i. e. no mistakes, no exhaustion, no visible emotion (exaggeration, of course). See - Ding Liren.

So not quite sure what I did wrong :O

I don't get it either.

Perhaps he's just saying that Chinese chess players are more than simply robots (e.g. calculation/prep machines). But I dno.

I guess because 'Chinese-' was redundant and potentially used for emphasis.

Ding is an alien god, but he seemed tired today.

His only weakness is hungry and sleepy

He probably ran out of his robot fuel.

Congrats to the world's best amateur player - Radjabov!

Belated congrats to Giri who gets to play the Candidates!

Also congrats to MVL since Radjabov says he doesn't want to play the Candidates!

Also congrats to Ding who is the best player not named Magnus right now!

Also congrats to Magnus for doing commentary so much!

It will be interesting to see who goes crazy in the next Candidates. Kramnik was last time, Topalov the time before that. But so far for this one there doesn't really seem to be anyone. Sure some will fold under immense pressure or have a bad tournament, but it's hard to imagine Radjabov going crazy or not preparing if he does decide to play.

Ding's dejection at the press conference reminds me of Tim Duncan after losing to the Heat.

After just two rounds, the Grand Swiss is down to only five perfect scores. Gonna be real interesting to see how this all shakes out as it progresses.