You would need to be a player with experience playing Blitz with a real chess clock. If not, then you're more likely to flag in 2 minutes than Magnus in 30 seconds. And it's not like you can just play random moves - 30 seconds is enough time to create some kind of mate threats as the game with Bill Gates showed.

for reference:
fairly fast dudes playing bullet

Magnus runs over Laurent Fressinet (2700+) while not stopping to think too much (note the excellent Fundamental Chess Endings in the background)

A lot of it depends on how, exactly, the player with 30 seconds moves the pieces. Technically, you are not allowed to touch your own piece until after your opponent hits their clock. If the time-handicapped player follows this rule strictly, they are unlikely to be able to make more than 25-30 moves. On the other hand, in my personal experience, most people who hit time scramble in blitz games tend to utilize a technique that I like to call "live premove", where they move their own piece as soon as they see where you're moving yours, sometimes even beating you to the square, and by the time you hit the clock, their hand is already there, and they "use" maybe a tenth of a second before your clock is ticking again.

Carlsen seemed to mostly be playing by the rules (or relatively close to it, at least). Which is why it took him about nine seconds to make his nine moves (not counting the three seconds or so he lost when he knocked over the pawn).

Which of these methods of play was in use would be hugely relevant to the expected results.

Last Sunday, at chess club, I played a pair of 30 second - 2 minute games against the kid I've talked about a few times before. He's a Class A player at standard, but I strongly believe he's at least expert strength at blitz and at least master strength at bullet. He's told me he hates blitz because 3/0 is "too slow" for him and it makes him uncomfortable. I'm a Class C player, and don't think I'm much better or worse (relatively speaking) at any particular time control. I had the 2 minutes, and white, in both games - he had black and thirty seconds. He was using the "live premove" method.

In the first game, I fell into the trap of trying to move just as fast as him, dropped lots of material, then slowed down trying to figure out how to salvage the position. I ended up losing almost all of my time advantage, but dodged mates just long enough, and ended up flagging him with 1.4 seconds left on my clock, in an objectively dead lost position.

In the second game, I again quickly dropped a piece, because duh, I was playing bullet chess against a much stronger player, and that's what happens. This time, though, I slowed down in a more controlled way, started using my time advantage well, ended up winning his queen, eating everything, and mated him with a good 10 seconds left on my clock.

If he had played by the rules, rather than premoving, I believe I'd have crushed him easily in both games. That said, he's no Magnus, and I have a lot more than a year of experience. Ultimately I'm not sure what our experiment indicates in terms of the question of what FM wlrs would do against someone who really is that inexperienced.

I still disagree with you.

It is not against the rules to move before your opponent presses his clock. It would be impossible to enforce even if it was a rule.

It is against the rules to prevent your opponent from pressing his clock. So if you make your move before your opponent presses his clock you are not allowed to hold down the clock button to prevent your opponent from starting your clock - you have to let him press his clock before pressing yours.

Yeah, you guys are right (for USCF at least). A move is completed *when you let go of your piece*. It's rule #15 in here.

FIDE says that a move is "completed" when you hit the clock. USCF says that (at least in blitz, I'm not sure about standard) a move is "completed" when you let go of the piece.

Obviously you may begin your own move once your opponent completes his (whether he's hit the clock or not).

One thing I'm still not sure of is whether you may begin your move while your opponent is still touching his own piece? Do you have to let him "complete" his move before you begin yours? Of if he's holding his piece on a destination square but not letting go (still deciding if he wants to put it on that square or a different square) are you allowed to make your response move before he decides and lets go? Essentially "premoving" your response so that once he lets go and hits his clock all you have to do in response is hit your own clock, with your move already on the board?

Edit: And in FIDE, where "completing a move" requires hitting the clock, does this mean that my assertion of not being able to touch your own piece until your opponent hits the clock actually would be valid? And would only be an incorrect assertion under USCF rules? Or under FIDE rules would you still be allowed to touch your piece (begin your move) before your opponent's move is completed (the clock hit)?

The first thing I pictured when I read this sentence was a chess player restraining another in a vice grip.