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Bet: When Carlsen peaks he will be stronger than the strongest engine Bet: When Carlsen peaks he will be stronger than the strongest engine

03-15-2009 , 08:18 PM
Well, I thought it was slow. Also one of the best examples of coordinating a 5 bishop attack I've ever seen. Makes me wonder, what was the longest game ever in terms of move count?
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03-15-2009 , 08:29 PM
I'm going to have to query Rybka's 174th move there. It's an interesting game, since N. has to not only close the position, but then achieve enough of a material deficit that the engine will self-destruct rather than take the draw.

If you count informal games, I'm sure two people on ICC have played a "game" just to get the move count to break 1000. If you collude, you don't even have to worry about the 50 move rule or repetition. Otherwise, wikipedia.
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03-15-2009 , 09:09 PM
59. ... Re6! and 110. ... Qe6!! are clearly a BRILLIANT pair of exchange sacs

Seriously though, I'm confused about the bug he's exploiting. I get that Rybka would make a bad move to avoid a draw when it thinks it's winning... but why would it make a losing move when it thinks the position is drawn? (180. Rh3, 181. Kb2, 182. Re1) I mean I'm looking at it with Fritz, not Rybka, but each of those three moves come in a position that Fritz evaluates at (0.00), whereas after the move Fritz evaluates black as being ahead. Does Rybka see it differently? Because those moves have me confused...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sholar
I'm going to have to query Rybka's 174th move there. It's an interesting game, since N. has to not only close the position, but then achieve enough of a material deficit that the engine will self-destruct rather than take the draw.
I'm assuming this is a product of it being a blitz game. Fritz sees evaluates the position at (0.00) after either 174. c4 or after any of the other moves that end things instantly in a draw, if you give it time. For the first 20 seconds or so, though, it has 174. c4 as being slightly better than drawing (0.09, then 0.06). I assume Rybka evaluates it similarly.

Last edited by BobJoeJim; 03-15-2009 at 09:16 PM.
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03-15-2009 , 09:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RoundTower
That's not a "slow, building attack": it's exploiting a known bug/weakness of the engine in closed positions where it thinks it is winning but needs to avoid a draw by the 50-move rule.
So us humans are not allowed to exploit the computers' weaknesses? No wonder we can't beat them. Anyhow...

I won't be able to find a slow, building attack where Naka beat Rybka but I observed it as it happened, so you can choose to believe me or not. It wasn't a BS closed position either, Naka just went for a slow kingside attack a la the Vienna or a Closed Sicilian or something similar and sacced two pieces and mated the beast. Like I said, believe it or not, but I saw it happen.
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03-15-2009 , 11:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobJoeJim
59. ... Re6! and 110. ... Qe6!! are clearly a BRILLIANT pair of exchange sacs

Seriously though, I'm confused about the bug he's exploiting. I get that Rybka would make a bad move to avoid a draw when it thinks it's winning... but why would it make a losing move when it thinks the position is drawn? (180. Rh3, 181. Kb2, 182. Re1) I mean I'm looking at it with Fritz, not Rybka, but each of those three moves come in a position that Fritz evaluates at (0.00), whereas after the move Fritz evaluates black as being ahead. Does Rybka see it differently? Because those moves have me confused...



I'm assuming this is a product of it being a blitz game. Fritz sees evaluates the position at (0.00) after either 174. c4 or after any of the other moves that end things instantly in a draw, if you give it time. For the first 20 seconds or so, though, it has 174. c4 as being slightly better than drawing (0.09, then 0.06). I assume Rybka evaluates it similarly.
On my machine Rybka thinks White is better after 174. c4 for at least 30 seconds (+.8, then +.3). I think this particular bug is a Rybka-specific thing, so I would expect Fritz to evaluate the positions more accurately.
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03-15-2009 , 11:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Discipline
So us humans are not allowed to exploit the computers' weaknesses? No wonder we can't beat them. Anyhow...
Of course they're "allowed" to.

But this one is a bit like if Nakamura told you he can outrun a racehorse and set it up as a prop bet. The race starts and they both start out of the gates together, then the horse panics and throws its rider.

As you are paying up your lost money, you ask him how he did it. He lets you in on the secret -- he knew this racehorse was terribly afraid of dogs, so he started making barking noises as soon as they got out of the gate and the horse panicked.

It's still impressive -- he had to figure out the horse's weakness, learn how to make a convincing barking sound, and run fast enough to keep within shouting distance of the horse for the first 20 yards or so. All that and he also had to find a sucker who would take his bet. But it's not as impressive as a guy actually running a 2-minute mile.
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03-16-2009 , 01:01 AM
No, it's absolutely nothing like that. The computer has a weakness, Naka figured it out, Naka won. End.
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03-16-2009 , 08:06 AM
That's what I said!
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03-16-2009 , 08:36 PM
Ruff Ruff Ruff Ruff
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03-17-2009 , 12:41 PM
if I had to bet money on it, I think that its >50% chance that DR3 on my octal with 48h/move could draw 99/100 games against anything the future will turn up.

Computer vs computer is only exciting with shorter time controls today. magnus has no chance of winning against rybka3 on longer time controls... ever....
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03-19-2009 , 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RoundTower
That's what I said!
It sounded like you were trying to convince me that the win was somehow hollow or illegitimate. It was nothing of the sort. Sure, it's a very strange weakness to exploit, but I don't think it's something that the programmers could just insta-fix (or they would have after seeing all of Naka's games). So it's a legitimate weakness that the GM detected and used to win. End of story.

Quote:
Originally Posted by All-inMcLovin
Ruff Ruff Ruff Ruff
Meow meow meow.
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03-19-2009 , 10:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EvilSteve
[Event "ICC blitz 3 0"]
[Site "Internet Chess Club"]
[Date "2008.03.15"]
[EventDate "?"]
[Round "-"]
[Result "0-1"]
[White "Rybka (Computer)"]
[Black "Hikaru Nakamura"]
[ECO "A00"]
[WhiteElo "?"]
[BlackElo "2697"]
[PlyCount "510"]

1. g4 d5 2. h3 h5 3. g5 g6 4. d4 Bg7 5. Nc3 c6 6. Nf3 Bf5
7. Nh4 e6 8. Nxf5 exf5 9. Bf4 Ne7 10. e3 O-O 11. Qd2 Nd7
12. O-O-O Re8 13. Bg2 Nf8 14. Be5 Ne6 15. f4 Nc8 16. Kb1 Nd6
17. Bf1 Qd7 18. a4 b6 19. Ba6 Nc7 20. Be2 a6 21. Bd3 b5 22. h4
Ne6 23. Ne2 Re7 24. Ka1 Ree8 25. Qa5 Nb7 26. Qd2 Nd6 27. Rh2
Bf8 28. Rf2 Ng7 29. a5 Nb7 30. Ng1 Qd8 31. b4 Qd7 32. Nf3 Nd6
33. Bxd6 Bxd6 34. Ne5 Qb7 35. Kb2 Rac8 36. c3 Re7 37. Be2 Ree8
38. Bf3 Re7 39. Qc2 Rd8 40. Rfd2 Bb8 41. Be2 Re6 42. Bd3 Re7
43. Rf2 Re6 44. Qd2 Re7 45. Rg1 Re6 46. Rff1 Re7 47. Qd1 Re6
48. Rg2 Re7 49. Qc2 Re6 50. Rfg1 Re7 51. Rf2 Re6 52. Qe2 Re7
53. Qf3 Re6 54. Rd2 Re7 55. Rgd1 Re6 56. Qg3 Re7 57. Kb1 Re6
58. Bc2 Re7 59. Nd3 Re6 60. Nc5 Qc8 61. Nxe6 Qxe6 62. Kb2 Re8
63. Re1 Qd7 64. Qf3 Re7 65. Bd3 Re8 66. Rg2 Re7 67. Kb3 Re8
68. Ra2 Re7 69. Rc1 Re8 70. Rca1 Re7 71. Rg1 Re8 72. Rh2 Re7
73. Qg3 Re8 74. Ka3 Re7 75. Rb1 Re8 76. Rd2 Re7 77. Kb3 Re8
78. Ra1 Re7 79. Kb2 Re8 80. Re2 Re7 81. Ree1 Re6 82. Qf3 Qe7
83. Qf2 Qe8 84. Be2 Qe7 85. Bd1 Qe8 86. Bf3 Qe7 87. Qd2 Qe8
88. Kb3 Qe7 89. Kc2 Qe8 90. Kb2 Qe7 91. Rab1 Kf8 92. Qf2 Ke8
93. Be2 Kd8 94. Bd3 Qe8 95. Qf3 Ke7 96. Kb3 Kf8 97. Ra1 Qe7
98. Bc2 Kg8 99. Kb2 Qe8 100. Qf2 Qe7 101. Qd2 Qe8 102. Bd3 Qe7
103. Be2 Qe8 104. Rad1 Qe7 105. Rc1 Qe8 106. Bf3 Qe7 107. Qf2
Qe8 108. Rcd1 Qe7 109. Be2 Re4 110. Bd3 Qe6 111. Bxe4 fxe4
112. Ra1 Nf5 113. Kb3 Kf8 114. Rh1 Ke8 115. Rh2 Kd7 116. Qe1
Kd8 117. Rd1 Kd7 118. Rc2 Kd8 119. Qf2 Nd6 120. Ka2 Qf5
121. Rh1 Kd7 122. Qg3 Ke6 123. Qh3 Ke7 124. Qxf5 Nxf5 125. Rh3
Ke6 126. Kb3 Bc7 127. Re2 Bb8 128. Re1 Bc7 129. Ra1 Bb8
130. Rd1 Bc7 131. Re1 Bb8 132. Re2 Bc7 133. Rg2 Bb8 134. Rg1
Bc7 135. Rb1 Bb8 136. Rbh1 Bc7 137. Rg1 Bb8 138. Kb2 Bc7
139. Kc2 Bb8 140. Kd2 Bc7 141. Rh2 Bb8 142. Rc1 Bc7 143. Ra1
Bb8 144. Ke2 Bc7 145. Rg1 Bb8 146. Rhh1 Bc7 147. Kd2 Bb8
148. Rc1 Bc7 149. Rh3 Bb8 150. Ra1 Bc7 151. Rhh1 Bb8 152. Rae1
Bc7 153. Rh2 Bb8 154. Rh3 Bc7 155. Ra1 Bb8 156. Kc2 Bc7
157. Rf1 Bb8 158. Kb3 Bc7 159. Rf2 Bb8 160. Kc2 Bc7 161. Rg2
Bb8 162. Kd2 Bc7 163. Rh1 Bb8 164. Rf2 Bc7 165. Rfh2 Bb8
166. Rd1 Bc7 167. Rf1 Bb8 168. Re1 Bc7 169. Ke2 Bb8 170. Rh3
Bc7 171. Kd2 Bb8 172. Kc2 Bc7 173. Rb1 Bb8 174. c4 dxc4
175. Kb2 Bd6 176. Ka3 Ne7 177. Rb2 Nd5 178. Rg3 Kf5 179. Rb1
Be7 180. Rh3 Bd6 181. Kb2 Be7 182. Re1 Bxb4 183. Re2 Bxa5
184. Kc1 Bb6 185. Kc2 a5 186. Rh1 a4 187. Kc1 a3 188. Rc2 Ba5
189. Rh3 Bb4 190. Re2 Bd6 191. Re1 b4 192. Kb1 b3 193. Rh2 c3
194. Rc2 Bb4 195. Ka1 bxc2 196. Ka2 Nxe3 197. Kb3 Kxf4
198. Rc1 c5 199. dxc5 Bxc5 200. Rh1 Kg3 201. Ra1 Kxh4 202. Rc1
Kxg5 203. Rg1+ Kf4 204. Rh1 g5 205. Ra1 h4 206. Rc1 h3
207. Kxc3 g4 208. Kb3 g3 209. Ka4 g2 210. Kb5 Bd4 211. Ka6 Bb2
212. Ka7 Bxc1 213. Kb7 Bb2 214. Kb8 h2 215. Kb7 f5 216. Kb6
Ke5 217. Kc6 f4 218. Kb5 f3 219. Kb6 a2 220. Kb7 f2 221. Kc8
f1=B 222. Kb7 g1=B 223. Kb8 h1=B 224. Kb7 c1=N 225. Kc6 a1=B
226. Kd7 Nd5 227. Ke8 Ne7 228. Kxe7 Nd3 229. Kf7 Nc5 230. Ke7
Nd7 231. Kxd7 e3 232. Kd8 e2 233. Kc7 e1=B 234. Kd8 Ba5+
235. Ke8 Bd8 236. Kf8 Be7+ 237. Kxe7 Bb5 238. Kf8 Bd5 239. Ke7
Bb6 240. Kf8 Bd8 241. Kg7 Ba3 242. Kh6 Bf8+ 243. Kh5 Bf7+
244. Kg4 Bf1 245. Kg3 Bd4 246. Kg4 Bf2 247. Kf3 Be1 248. Kg4
Bg6 249. Kf3 Bh5+ 250. Ke3 Bh3 251. Kd3 Bg6+ 252. Kc4 Bd7
253. Kb3 Bb5 254. Ka2 Bda5 255. Kb2 Bfb4 256. Ka2 Bec3
257. Kb3 Bbd3 258. Ka4 Bc2+ 259. Kb5 Be8+ 260. Ka6 Bc6
261. Ka7 Bd3 262. Kb8 Bdb5 263. Kc8 Kd6 264. Kb8 Bf6 265. Kc8
Kd5 266. Kb8 Bd6+ 267. Kc8 Bd7+ 268. Kb7 Bd4 269. Ka8 Bac7
270. Kb7 Bdb6 271. Ka8 Bbc6# 0-1
How the hell do you do that in three minutes??????????
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03-19-2009 , 10:48 PM
Premove.

Also: no need to quote that giant wall of text, and the last 9 question marks are superfluous!!!!!!!!!!
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03-20-2009 , 02:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by roblin
if I had to bet money on it, I think that its >50% chance that DR3 on my octal with 48h/move could draw 99/100 games against anything the future will turn up.

Computer vs computer is only exciting with shorter time controls today. magnus has no chance of winning against rybka3 on longer time controls... ever....
I'm skeptical of this claim. I would guess that the top correspondence masters would still be able to beat Rybka in a game at those time controls. Does anyone know if this has been done?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Discipline
It sounded like you were trying to convince me that the win was somehow hollow or illegitimate. It was nothing of the sort. Sure, it's a very strange weakness to exploit, but I don't think it's something that the programmers could just insta-fix (or they would have after seeing all of Naka's games). So it's a legitimate weakness that the GM detected and used to win. End of story.
I wonder, actually, if it would really be that hard. Probably not -- I'd guess that the main reason is that the performance hit isn't worth it, and that the engine is designed for longer time controls anyway. That is, would rybka make the same mistake if it had a few more seconds per move? My guess is that the developers aren't principally worried about losing a few blitz games now and then...
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03-20-2009 , 04:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sholar
I'm skeptical of this claim. I would guess that the top correspondence masters would still be able to beat Rybka in a game at those time controls. Does anyone know if this has been done?
The top correspondence players are nowhere near as good as the top players, if they played correspondence chess.

Anyway, players would still make tactical mistakes, even given all the time in the world.
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03-20-2009 , 04:51 AM
I think a computer is much more likely to make a tactical mistake than a strong human, given something like 3 days per move. It's kind of strange. The primary thing computers have going for them is their tactical calculation, but they still are very far off of their evaluation in lots of the sharpest lines such as the Botvinnik variation of the semi-slav. Although humans, in turn, rely extensively on the computers to get them through those variations that the computer's in turn completely misevaluate after the position settles.

So many paradoxes in computer chess.
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03-20-2009 , 08:54 AM
This was an interesting debate 7-10 years ago, but with the top engine playing ~500 ELO above the top human at standard time controls, there really is no longer any comparison beyond digging up obscure positions or games where an engine did something "stupid".

In response to the post above me, I don't think it is the case that the top engine(s) are positionally weak anymore. Rybka plays accurately without a book in virtually every opening in my experience. And I have not seen it make any "tactical" errors given long time controls.

I also don't think computers are slowing down any time soon. Hardware improvements are certainly not slowing down, and there is still plenty of room for algorithmic improvement in chess engines in my humble opinion.
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03-20-2009 , 09:03 AM
Excellent post willyc, I agree with virtually everything you wrote.
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03-20-2009 , 12:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AffleckKGB
The top correspondence players are nowhere near as good as the top players, if they played correspondence chess.

Anyway, players would still make tactical mistakes, even given all the time in the world.
It's pointless to argue (and I don't really have an opinion on) your first claim, although the character of the games is somewhat different. Nonetheless it's irrelevant -- I only mean to say that humanity's best at these sorts of time controls, whoever that may be, is likely still better than the best engines.

Keep in mind that (generally speaking) in international correspondence chess (as opposed to, say, the US Chess Fed. rules) there are no restrictions on outside aid, and so people pay assisted by computers. So I'm sure that there's data on people who entered and just played whatever their computer told them to, and I doubt that they would win any high-caliber events.
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03-20-2009 , 04:05 PM
How can you claim that the best OTB players would be better than the best correspondence players if they played correspondence chess? That's so absurd. It's like saying that the best 400m runners would be better than the best 5000m runners if they chose to run that event.
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03-20-2009 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sholar
I'm skeptical of this claim. I would guess that the top correspondence masters would still be able to beat Rybka in a game at those time controls. Does anyone know if this has been done?
I base my statement by being part of the rybka vs hiarcs and rybka vs the gladiators 48h/move matches which both drawed. it was really strong play by both sides and the evalutation always got closer to 0.0 the deeper the evaluation went. it's really really hard to beat rybka3 at longer time controls on modern hardware. no human alive today have any chance of doing this.
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03-20-2009 , 07:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Discipline
How can you claim that the best OTB players would be better than the best correspondence players if they played correspondence chess? That's so absurd. It's like saying that the best 400m runners would be better than the best 5000m runners if they chose to run that event.
Im sorry but its definitely true. If Anand wanted to be world correspondence champion he could do so easily.
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03-20-2009 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Discipline
How can you claim that the best OTB players would be better than the best correspondence players if they played correspondence chess? That's so absurd. It's like saying that the best 400m runners would be better than the best 5000m runners if they chose to run that event.
[ ] good analogy
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03-20-2009 , 11:35 PM
No, it's not true. Think about all the weak GMs and strong IMs who are great analysts and find holes in OTB games and stuff. The best analysts are the best correspondence players. Maybe Anand in particular could be CC world champion if he wanted to, but that's not the point.
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03-21-2009 , 12:12 AM
Then what is the point? (seriously, I'm just wondering)
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