Quote:
Originally Posted by RoundTower
obviously these two things are related, but they are totally different! The first one is something that happens to all computers to some extent, it might be after 3 moves or after 23 moves. The second one is the main reason why faster computers don't lead to a proportional difference in playing skill.
...because of the horizon effect. Anyway, moving on...
Quote:
Originally Posted by RoundTower
wait, you think computers will continue to get better and better, but that Carlsen specifically is improving at some kind of superhuman speed? I don't think it's possible to judge that.
No...
Quote:
Originally Posted by EvilSteve
If your point is that Carlsen and the new generation of GMs will be better than the previous generations, partly as a result of being able to train with chess engines, databases, etc, I agree with that. So there could be a jump in overall skill level with that generation. I just don't think it will keep pace with improvements in chess engines over the same time scale. Anyhow we agree on the long-term situation, your earlier posts gave me a different impression, sorry if I jumped to conclusions.
Okay, look at it this way. Say you have two containers, one of which holds 10 liters and the other which holds 1000 liters. Right now the 1000 liter container has 7 liters of water in it and the 10 liter container has 6 liters of water in it. The larger container is being steadily filled with water at a rate of .1 liters per day. The smaller container is being filled incrementally with 2 liter dumps every week. One week from now, the larger container will contain 7.7 liters of water and the smaller container will contain 8 liters of water. Eventually, though, the larger container will contain 1000 liters and the smaller container will only contain 10 liters.
The point is that people have given up on humans before they had a chance to come out with the next version (generation) of the GM. If the last generation of GMs, who didn't grow up with the internet, chessbase, and Fritz, can score ~30% or so against the engines, the next generation will surely do much better, because humans improve drastically from generation to generation but not much within a single generation.