Gukesh is currently 3-1 favorite to win.

I want to live in a world where Ding retains the crown. But I feel like Gukesh's ceiling might actually be 95% to win, while Ding's might be 55% at best.

Giri has made many comments on Gukesh's form and training. It sounds like he has been training 10 hours per day.

And as we know from Bobby, it's the work you put in that makes you a champion.

Is anyone betting on this?

I think it comes down to Ding’s confidence.

He’s already publicly said that he considers himself the underdog in the match. Which is aligning with his recent tournament performances.

However, confidence is a preference.

Bobby Fischer famously said:

“You should be confident in yourself and that confidence should be based on fact.”

If Ding puts in the necessary work and preparations for the match, then he should be confident. And if he’s not… then we will welcome a new world champion in Gukesh.

Ding has been a terrible champion for chess. Going into hiding after he won, and coming out in terrible form, it's clear he took an extended break from chess after reaching the top of the pile.

He deserves to lose and I think he knows it.

Ding was broken even before he became Champ imo. So in that sense, if anyone can defend his title while still being broken, it's him. OTOH, he's broken and Gukesh may be too naive or young to break unless multiple things go horrendously wrong for him immediately in the match.

I will take Gukesh at current odds (1.3 last time I checked on Bwin) if anyone is interested.

Anyways, I can't remember the last time I was so unexcited about WCC. Basically some #5-#10 player who has been a bit lucky in the Candidates challenging now a barely 2700 washed up WC with mental issues. Pretty sad. Hopefully Ding will in the future get back up on his feet and reach his 2800 form again, he has been an exceptional player years ago.

Gukesh is currently -400 on bwin
And Ding is +260

Why?

Nostalgia, mostly. Plus he gives the best interviews. I don't want him to disappear from the chess world.

Winning seems to be what makes him disappear though.

How dare they play these games in the middle of the night!

But on a serious note, this guy does pretty good recaps:

You can't say this match isn't exciting

Two decisive results in three games. This ain't your father's championship.

Ding's play in game 3 was really unimpressive. Not so much for getting a losing position, but for putting up no resistance afterwards. In the position with 2 pawns for a piece if he kept playing good moves he could have really tested Gukesh, but he just gave up.

Ding minds too weak to stay WC.
That draw on game 2 without even trying was bad .
Game 3 was imo terrible .

This match already over imo unless a major change in ding mindset which I highly doubt .

Watching Game 8 with the supercomputer analysis is really fascinating. If you just look at the evaluation bar it says both players are blundering left and right, but if you look at the actual lines it's hard to even understand why it prefers one move to another.

In this position I can kind of understand why it's better to go to c5 with the a6 knight to avoid an unpleasant Bh3 after Black's rook moves to c8, however not easy to see at all.



And later, in this position why is Ne1 so much better than Nd4?


Craziest of all, in this position, the Bc5-d4-b6 maneuver is the only way to maintain a big advantage?!


I have to say the last two games of this match have really delivered high-level chess.

What if Ding is the GOAT?

That's a reality one ought to familiarize with.

He was playing far below "GOAT" level all year. There's no reason to believe that. He's not even beating Gukesh.

Gukesh +1 after 11. Ding hasn't won since Game 1 and he now needs a win.

One for the kid as Ding snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

Seeing a lot of criticism of this WC from various sources, but are we not entertained?

.

Ding is the one who knocks.

I expect two more draws and then we'll really see who's better under time pressure.

But who knows with this crazy match.