Yeah, agree with most of the points you made.
For sure shorting Abasov just before the match at 34 would give you a risk-free 3% ROI in just over 3 weeks - not bad at all.
Although.....
Disagree with Anand giving that much value to the Indians' opening prep. Don't get me wrong, the guy is a legend and could definitely help them but even he himself admitted multiple times over the past few years' WCC and Candidates commentaries that is just out of touch with modern theory, thus he'd have to do a lot of studying himself to be able to prepare and explain the novelties he found etc.
Alireza being a wild card - do not agree, he is an overhyped online prodigy who got humbled during the last Candidates tournament. Somehow got to ~2800 at the time farming mid-tier GMs and now after 2 years in the fashion industry not focusing on chess his rating is dropping to his real strength - 2730-2750ish.
MVL was one of my favorite players years ago but let's face it, he is past his prime.
The betting odds definitely are ridiculous though, i'd probably set up the lines roughly like this:
Caruana - Pretty well priced i think. Obviously a favorite in the tournament, has the best prep by far, is used to these formats and had an incredible 2023. Only one (maybe aside from Karjakin who is not there anymore) who was able to match Magnus in the WCC. (What happened to him in the 2021-2022 period though? He dropped like 80 ELO and then climed back to 2800+ last year).
Nakamura - Definitely good value at 7.00. Not sure how he got back from the dead (was out of top 20 for a long while) but somehow he got to #2-#3 recently having an insane year in which he has not lost a classical game. I have no clue how the guy did this being 36yo while streaming 24/7 and not running engines 12 hrs/day with his team of seconds like the rest of the guys. Even though i do not like him, compliments... And most likely his only and last chance of claiming the WCC title.
Nepomniachtchi - Definitely good value at 5.00. Even though his rating dropped a bit, he won the last 2 Candidates tournies, has the experience, has a very good/suitable style for these formats and will be hungry to get a rematch with Ding for that stupid rapid blunder which cost him the title.
Firouzja - 6.00 has to be a joke, probably based on the anticipated demand from thousands of 12-year old 900-rated lichess bullet kids betting their pocket money. Probably the best spot to short. The guy got there last minute by highest January rating (wtf FIDE?) farming has-been French GMs after disappearing for 1.5 years dedicating his time to the fashion industry. What?
Pragg, Gukesh - Likely these 18yo guys will be up there challenging the title in 5-10 years but they are just not there yet for this kind of format/competition. The same thing will happen to them as what did to Firouzja 2 years ago.
Vidit, Abasov - No comment, but will be interesting to see how they perform.
TLDR:
Fabi - fair price
Nepo, Naka - underpriced
Everyone else - massively overpriced
Then again, i'm your average 1700 FIDE club player so what do i know.
Last edited by vrael111; 01-09-2024 at 06:21 PM.