2024 candidates thread - Page 4 - Chess and Board Game Strategy

Really interesting now. 3 rounds to go and still 4 people who could potentially win the tournament.

Should have bet on Nepo and Naka at those original odds

What were the Odds?

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04-18-2024 , 02:42 AM

#77

vrael111

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 2,957

Check the 1st post itt.

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04-18-2024 , 02:58 AM

#78

vrael111

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 2,957

Quote:

Originally Posted by vrael111

Really interesting now. 3 rounds to go and still 4 people who could potentially win the tournament.

Should have bet on Nepo and Naka at those original odds

Well, Nepo won yesterday in the end so I guess Caruana is out of the picture now due to the 1 point difference. Sad, might have been his last big chance to become a WC.

Gukesh is still playing Abasov (as black) and Firouzja (as white) whereas Naka and Nepo have tougher pairings.

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04-18-2024 , 03:43 AM

#79

Tuma

Worships Amon-Ra

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 16,402

Gukesh winning will be good for Ding's chances.

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04-18-2024 , 09:52 AM

#80

Neil S

King of the sidebar

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 19,707

I like Nepo but if he wins this year's Candidates he'd better beat Ding.

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04-18-2024 , 10:38 PM

#81

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

I can't believe I didn't think until just now to check 2p2 for Candidates discussion lol. This tournament has been amazing and the last two rounds are going to be such great drama!!!

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04-18-2024 , 11:57 PM

#82

Unguarded

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 5,737

Am I naive for being surprised that Gukesh's performance at age 17 isn't making world news outside of chess and Indian sources? This seems unprecedented to me, and the world could really use an uplifting news story right now.

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04-19-2024 , 01:46 AM

#83

PaxiFixi

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2024 Posts: 43

Wow with the recent results all 4 players who still have chances (Nepo, Hikaru, Fabi and Gukesh) still play against each other in the next 2 rounds. Couldn’t ask for more, That is awesome!

Hikaru 7.5
Gukesh 7.5
Nepo 7.5
Fabi 7.0

Nepo vs Hikaru
Gukesh vs Alireza
Pragg vs Fabi

Hikaru vs Gukesh
Fabi vs Nepo

Hikaru has the toughest two opponents remaining and Gukesh would win the tiebreaker as of now.

Last edited by PaxiFixi; 04-19-2024 at 02:00 AM.

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04-19-2024 , 12:39 PM

#84

Neil S

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Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 19,707

I was tuning this tournament out for most of it, because I knew the only way it'd be interesting would be with a finish like this.

First round tiebreak is white and white 15+10 for two players, and a single round robin for 3+.

Second round tiebreak drops all the way to 3+2.

Stage three is a 3+2 KO tournament. Colors and bracket drawn by lots. If a game ties, repeat with colors reversing until a decisive result is reached. Blitz, but no armageddon games.

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04-19-2024 , 01:16 PM

#85

Neil S

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If it gets to rapid and blitz I have to think Hikaru becomes the favorite. So Hikaru's chances of taking on Ding may rest on Alireza's ability to draw Gukesh.

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04-20-2024 , 04:12 AM

#86

vrael111

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 2,957

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neil S

If it gets to rapid and blitz I have to think Hikaru becomes the favorite. So Hikaru's chances of taking on Ding may rest on Alireza's ability to draw Gukesh.

I don't know man, it's OTB rapid, not blitz/bullet online. They are very close, apart from Gukesh.

Ian 2754 (#3 in world)
Hikaru 2746 (#10 in world)
Fabi 2738 (#11 in world)
Gukesh 2649 (#54 in world)

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04-20-2024 , 03:25 PM

#87

Neil S

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True, the gap isn't really there in rapid. Hmm. The first tiebreak is much slower a time control.

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04-21-2024 , 04:06 PM

#88

vrael111

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 2,957

Fabi ftw

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04-21-2024 , 05:58 PM

#89

Neil S

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With Caruana looking strongly ahead of Nepomniachtchi, that's going to light a fire under Gukesh, which may give Nakamura more chances.

And sure enough, Gukesh has spent his entire time advantage thinking about his options here.

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04-21-2024 , 06:13 PM

#90

Neil S

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But the commentators point out Hikaru might prefer to give Fabi a shot.

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04-21-2024 , 06:45 PM

#91

Tuma

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Poor Fabi couldn't convert in time trouble, and then tilt blitzed out a blunder right after time control.

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04-21-2024 , 07:54 PM

#92

Neil S

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I was rooting for the Americans, dang.

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04-22-2024 , 04:21 AM

#93

vrael111

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 2,957

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tuma

Poor Fabi couldn't convert in time trouble, and then tilt blitzed out a blunder right after time control.

Yeah I did not understand this. It's like he forgot he got extra 30 min.

Anyways, just in case Ding declines to defend, it would be Gukesh vs Naka right? He is tied with Nepo - same score and SB score but Naka has more wins.

https://twitter.com/chesscom/status/...0ChUR4kmw&s=19

Last edited by vrael111; 04-22-2024 at 04:28 AM.

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04-22-2024 , 08:29 AM

#94

Neil S

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Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 19,707

Correct. Regulation 4.4.2.3 for the 2024 tournament says the tiebreaks are:

a) SB score
b) Wins
c) Head to head scores
d) Drawing lots

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04-22-2024 , 01:56 PM

#95

Neil S

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Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 19,707

"Ali... he threw the tournament for everyone" - Nepo to Fabi after accepting the draw offer.

Chessbase India had a camera and mic at the table.

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04-22-2024 , 02:12 PM

#96

vrael111

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 2,957

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neil S

"Ali... he threw the tournament for everyone" - Nepo to Fabi after accepting the draw offer.

Chessbase India had a camera and mic at the table.

I do not understand this, care to elaborate please?

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04-22-2024 , 02:23 PM

#97

TimM

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Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 9,767

Implying Alireza screwed everyone else by blowing his game vs Gukesh in the prior round. If he drew it could have been a 4 way tie for first, giving them all a chance in the playoffs. Not sure he meant to imply he "threw" the game intentionally, as that could just be a language issue.