Seems like fairly good odds on Nakamura (although agree with Fabi having the best chance of winning).

Naka has not lost a classical game in 2023 and Fabi had a ridiculous year climbing back to 2800+ and re-taking the 2nd place by rating in Classical.

The Indians, Firouzja and Abasov are just ridiculously priced, would probably short them all if there was an opportunity.




Caruana (2804) - Second Runner-up at FIDE World Cup 2023

Nakamura (2788) - Runner-up at FIDE Grand Swiss 2023

Nepomniachtchi (2769) - Runner-up of the last World Championship Match

Firouzja (2759) - Highest rating in January 2024

Praggnanandhaa (2743) - Runner-up at FIDE World Cup 2023

Gujrathi (2742) - Winner of FIDE Grand Swiss 2023

Gukesh (2725) - FIDE Circuit 2023 runner-up

Abasov (2641) - Third Runner-up at FIDE World Cup 2023



Predictions:
- Caruana wins, qualifies and beats Ding in the WCC
- Abasov will be the punching bag and will end up last
- Firouzja will have better performance than last time
- Indians will mess it up but possibly one of them will end up 3rd/4th

Interesting to very simply compare these with the FIDE classical ratings,

By the odds you have Caruana head and shoulders above the Nepo-Gukesh band, and then you have Gujrathi and Abasov at the bottom. That mostly matches the ratings, though with Gujrathi and Gukesh reversed.

But the scale of the odds seems way off. These players will be playing a double round robin. It's not like a Swiss where fluky pairings and tiebreaks can happen. Everyone will play everyone else with both colors. Just by the math, the

So yeah, I generally agree with you. Fabi is on an epic tear the past year. He qualified for the Candidates in 3 or 4 different ways. He's expect to have a score of 0.7 per game he plays against Abasov. Same with Hikaru. Nepo and Alireza expected to score and 0.67.

Nepo won last year's at a 9.5/14 (Ding second at 8). Nepo won the year before that at 8.5. Fabi before that at 9. Karjarkin before that at 8.5.

It's hard to see Abasov ever scoring 7, let alone the 8.5+ it will take to win this tournament. He would have to beat the best, over and over again, and not lose to them. It's stupidly hard to get out of the 6-8 band in these tournaments, and you basically can't fluke into it. It's too many games, in an exhaustive round robin, with too much thinking time and too much prep time.

Shorting Abasov at 34.00 would be the easiest money in the world.

My predictions: Experience matters. The young Indians have likely never faced this level of preparation from players this good. This is when the Super GMs bring their best for three weeks of bulletproof Stockfish-tested battle plans. I would not be surprised if Vishy coached them a bit, but he can't second to all three of them. One of them will probably hold up to the pressure respectably well, but all three won't.

They'll do better in the future, but this is their "Act like you've been here before" moment.

On the flip side of that, guys like Nepo and Fabi will probably overperform their ratings.

The real wildcards are Hikaru and Alireza. I'd say only those four can realistically win it. If MVL had qualified I'd say he could.

Fabi was matched only by Magnus in 2023, and he's not walking through that door. Fabi to win.

Yeah, agree with most of the points you made.

For sure shorting Abasov just before the match at 34 would give you a risk-free 3% ROI in just over 3 weeks - not bad at all.

Although.....

Disagree with Anand giving that much value to the Indians' opening prep. Don't get me wrong, the guy is a legend and could definitely help them but even he himself admitted multiple times over the past few years' WCC and Candidates commentaries that is just out of touch with modern theory, thus he'd have to do a lot of studying himself to be able to prepare and explain the novelties he found etc.

Alireza being a wild card - do not agree, he is an overhyped online prodigy who got humbled during the last Candidates tournament. Somehow got to ~2800 at the time farming mid-tier GMs and now after 2 years in the fashion industry not focusing on chess his rating is dropping to his real strength - 2730-2750ish.

MVL was one of my favorite players years ago but let's face it, he is past his prime.


The betting odds definitely are ridiculous though, i'd probably set up the lines roughly like this:



Caruana - Pretty well priced i think. Obviously a favorite in the tournament, has the best prep by far, is used to these formats and had an incredible 2023. Only one (maybe aside from Karjakin who is not there anymore) who was able to match Magnus in the WCC. (What happened to him in the 2021-2022 period though? He dropped like 80 ELO and then climed back to 2800+ last year).

Nakamura - Definitely good value at 7.00. Not sure how he got back from the dead (was out of top 20 for a long while) but somehow he got to #2-#3 recently having an insane year in which he has not lost a classical game. I have no clue how the guy did this being 36yo while streaming 24/7 and not running engines 12 hrs/day with his team of seconds like the rest of the guys. Even though i do not like him, compliments... And most likely his only and last chance of claiming the WCC title.

Nepomniachtchi - Definitely good value at 5.00. Even though his rating dropped a bit, he won the last 2 Candidates tournies, has the experience, has a very good/suitable style for these formats and will be hungry to get a rematch with Ding for that stupid rapid blunder which cost him the title.

Firouzja - 6.00 has to be a joke, probably based on the anticipated demand from thousands of 12-year old 900-rated lichess bullet kids betting their pocket money. Probably the best spot to short. The guy got there last minute by highest January rating (wtf FIDE?) farming has-been French GMs after disappearing for 1.5 years dedicating his time to the fashion industry. What?

Pragg, Gukesh - Likely these 18yo guys will be up there challenging the title in 5-10 years but they are just not there yet for this kind of format/competition. The same thing will happen to them as what did to Firouzja 2 years ago.

Vidit, Abasov - No comment, but will be interesting to see how they perform.

TLDR:
Fabi - fair price
Nepo, Naka - underpriced
Everyone else - massively overpriced


Then again, i'm your average 1700 FIDE club player so what do i know.

IDK how to convert into american odds. That said, I'm betting Caruana and Firouzja pretty confidently.

1. Alireza - when all the chips are on the table, he has the highest ceiling of all the players
2. Fabi - surest thing to finish at or near the top of the standings
3. Pragg - good enough to win the whole thing
4. Nepo - bad juju as of late, not sure how devoted to prep he will be
5. Hikaru - c'mon, it's the candidates. we already know how hikaru will fare.
6. Vidit - simply not good enough
7. Gukesh - idk
8. Abasov - idk

Subject to change.

Happy to bet vs Firouzja and Praggnanandhaa if we can figure out a deal

sounds enticing. a lot can change between now and April, we shall see.

1. Fabi
2. Alireza


Going with Fabi's experience and Ali's talent but I don't think he has the requisite maturity yet to win 1st in the Candidates.

Just checked the odds on Bwin, everyone with the same odds except for Abasov who dropped to 41.

Abasov was one of the players listed for likely cheating on chess.com. His account was temporarily banned. Not good to have him playing the Candidates now.

They should replace him with Hans Moke Niemann. Think of the ratings.

Slam dunk bet on Nakamura with those odds

I am looking for action on Firouzja and Goryachkina.

I can bet vs Firouzja, my 1k USD @ bwin odds?

Definitely this. We need Hans in a candidates at some point, may as well be now.

I'm still a little bad with the math. You risking 1k means I am putting up around 160?

It sounds cool. I haven't wagered much on 2p2 in a couple years, are vouches and escrows still a thing?

yeah my 1k vs your 167.

I'm not sure tbh, got scammed twice before on 2p2 so would prefer an escrow but i do not really know anyone reputable personally. Do you have someone in mind?

I was scammed many years ago by a random, which was dumb of me. I know you're reputable as a poster, I'd still prefer to use an escrow if possible. I'll prob degen bet it last second if we can't find one tho.

Don't really have one in mind either. I trust most of the posters from OOT and the higher ups of the site. I'll pledge $40 of my winnings to someone who wants to step up.

rickroll has agreed to escrow if that is cool with you. i trust him, and will pay out my side personally if he dies while the tourney is in action.

happy to escrow, i have a long history of transactions here at 2p2 and often have 4-5 figures in outstanding balances with various 2p2ers due to various contests

if both parties agree, dm me and I'll send you my Paypal

glgl

Yeah that would work, thanks rick. So 167 vs 1000, USD i guess? Please confirm Tuma and i will then contact rick.

Let's do it.

I also vouch for rickroll, being the mod from SE where he is a regular and solid contributor.

Ffs, what a brainfart, sorry. It is 200 to my 1000 at bwin odds ofc. I messaged Tuma to clear this up but I am willing to settle at 167 if needed since this was my mistake.