I mean, if Magnus from two years ago shows up I think 30% or even a bit more is warranted. Fabi is better than Karjakin imo. But I have a feeling Magnus will be better prepared this time.
Surely Magnus will play better than he did last World Championship match. If he goes down a couple games to Caruana he will lose in such a short match.
I really want Caruana to win. Hopefully he can somehow win the first couple games when they restart and get it going.
But, yeah, I think Nepo will actually win it, although when I saw him some in person he kind of rubbed me the wrong way (seemed like a bit of an ahole). The good news is despite his improvement in consistency, he still seems inconsistent as F - so he's a decent pick to somehow bomb out in the second half.