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Old 11-18-2016, 05:13 PM   #51
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

I now predict that every game in the match will be drawn.

And folks you can't get any more lame than deciding the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP on a tiebreak playoff.
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Old 11-18-2016, 08:21 PM   #52
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

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I'm not sure it would be "quite easy" for him to return if he loses. He will be a favorite to win the candidates tournament but I'd say that is pretty high variance and I'd imagine he wouldn't be an overwhelming favorite, just the favorite.
That's a valid point, though if Magnus loses the current match, he'll be motivated to become even better at chess during 2017. Even more motivated than the rest of the 2770+ crowd except So despite them understanding that it's their best chance to win the championship. We've seen how they prepared for the Sinq Cup when it was without Magnus and they had a real chance to score a historic victory.

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I now predict that every game in the match will be drawn.
This means that Sergey will be the champion because if he wins the right to pick the colour in the Armageddon, he'll choose Black (Kappa), but Magnus will pick White as usual if given the opportunity, due to not believing in Sergey's drawing superpowers.

Last edited by coon74; 11-18-2016 at 08:29 PM.
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Old 11-18-2016, 08:32 PM   #53
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

I'm always surprised that I can't type **** in a post but you have it as part of your SN.
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Old 11-18-2016, 10:06 PM   #54
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

Yeah magnus losing certainly would be the motivation he's need to make a run at 2900. So there is that. OTOH, karjakin would be a legit world champ. Which.....I don't want to live in that world.
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Old 11-19-2016, 02:11 AM   #55
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

Magnus could also quit chess if he lost the title.
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Old 11-20-2016, 02:33 PM   #56
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

Last three games where Karjakin had white were all non-Berlin Ruy Lopez. If we don't get that again, what's the most likely deviation?

1. Karjakin doesn't play e4.
2. Carlsen doesn't play e5.
3. Karjakin plays the Italian.
4. Carlsen plays the Berlin.

2 imo.
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Old 11-20-2016, 02:40 PM   #57
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

Yeah, 1... c5 is more likely than the other deviations, considering that Magnus is more tired of drawing than Sergey.
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Old 11-20-2016, 02:48 PM   #58
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

Definitely thinking it will be the Sicilian if Carlsen doesn't play e5 but I wanted to cover my bases by grouping all other defenses together.
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Old 11-20-2016, 03:02 PM   #59
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

I've just studied the Slav a bit today and it's being played in the WCC. Fun times.

It would be even funnier had Magnus played 3... e5.

Edit: it looks like both were out of book by move 5. 1. d4 d5 2. c4 c6 3. Nc3 Nf6 4. e3 a6!? - isn't it just a waste of a tempo by Magnus? b7-b5 can be met by b3 anyway; as per Stockfish, a good offbeat try by White would be 5. Nf3 (to prevent e5) e6 6. c5 b6 7. cxb6 - I don't like Black's pawn structure there. Every engine (without a book built in) is a fish at openings, but I do believe SF here.

Last edited by coon74; 11-20-2016 at 03:21 PM.
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Old 11-20-2016, 03:48 PM   #60
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

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5. Nf3 (to prevent e5) e6 6. c5 b6 7. cxb6
Another option for Black is 5... Bf5, but as opposed to the usual Chebanenko, White has played e3 instead of c5, so now he doesn't have to commit to c5 and can play 6. Qb3 Ra7 7. Nh4 Bc8 8. Qc2 instead (unlike in the non-Chebanenko Slav, 6... Qb6 is impossible here), where Black looks a bit underdeveloped (the problem of the bad light-square bishop remains unsolved for Black, as he now has to play e6 sooner or later, which is still better than Bg4 h3 Bh5 g4 Bg6 Nxg6), though he's not in a bad shape at all yet.

And it goes without saying that I'm not a Chebanenko fan in general

Last edited by coon74; 11-20-2016 at 03:58 PM.
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Old 11-21-2016, 07:16 PM   #61
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

it's always wild to me that they'll take 90 minutes to play 30 moves and then stumble their way through 10 in 10. crazy game today.
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Old 11-21-2016, 08:09 PM   #62
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

what a wild game
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Old 11-21-2016, 08:22 PM   #63
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

Wow. It's going to be an exciting finish to the match.
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Old 11-21-2016, 09:05 PM   #64
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

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it's always wild to me that they'll take 90 minutes to play 30 moves and then stumble their way through 10 in 10. crazy game today.
A decent number of players are time pressure addicts.

and wow holy ****ing ****, CARLSEN'S KING FALLS. I can't believe Carlsen didn't play 44. Qg6+ and go for the (fairly simple) draw.

With only 4 games left it seems Carlsen might be ****ed here.
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Old 11-21-2016, 09:06 PM   #65
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

wow! magnus not on form
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Old 11-21-2016, 09:49 PM   #66
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

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Old 11-21-2016, 09:53 PM   #67
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

lol what a cry baby.

Not the first time he's stormed off after a loss either.

#DelicateGenius
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Old 11-21-2016, 09:56 PM   #68
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

Man, I couldn't watch live tonight. Going to have to resort to the youtubes tomorrow. I'm not the greatest Carlsen fan in the world, but if Karjakin should win it, then I can't think of a worse World Champion during my lifetime (discounting the FIDE fraud WC's during the PCA era, of course).

Karpov was class, Kasparov is the undisputable GOAT, Kramnik and Anand are meh in comparison to K&K, but still miles ahead of Karjakin in terms of personal and chess appeal.
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Old 11-21-2016, 10:19 PM   #69
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

lol World Champion Karjakin.

you suck Magnus.

Odds he quits chess went up drastically today.
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Old 11-21-2016, 10:24 PM   #70
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by Sugar Nut View Post
Man, I couldn't watch live tonight. Going to have to resort to the youtubes tomorrow. I'm not the greatest Carlsen fan in the world, but if Karjakin should win it, then I can't think of a worse World Champion during my lifetime (discounting the FIDE fraud WC's during the PCA era, of course).

Karpov was class, Kasparov is the undisputable GOAT, Kramnik and Anand are meh in comparison to K&K, but still miles ahead of Karjakin in terms of personal and chess appeal.

Don't forget Capablanca, who was the epitome of sophisticated cool. I assume he must've gotten laid a lot.
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Old 11-21-2016, 10:52 PM   #71
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sugar Nut View Post
Man, I couldn't watch live tonight. Going to have to resort to the youtubes tomorrow. I'm not the greatest Carlsen fan in the world, but if Karjakin should win it, then I can't think of a worse World Champion during my lifetime (discounting the FIDE fraud WC's during the PCA era, of course).

Karpov was class, Kasparov is the undisputable GOAT, Kramnik and Anand are meh in comparison to K&K, but still miles ahead of Karjakin in terms of personal and chess appeal.
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Don't forget Capablanca, who was the epitome of sophisticated cool. I assume he must've gotten laid a lot.
How old do you think Sugar Nut is?
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Old 11-22-2016, 12:55 AM   #72
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

2016 just keeps on delivering.
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Old 11-22-2016, 01:07 AM   #73
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

So now what does Karjakin play as white? And what does Magnus break out to try to even the score?
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Old 11-22-2016, 02:09 AM   #74
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

I say odds Karjakin plays 1. e4 are very slim, as that would invite a Sicilian Defense.

Quote:
So now what does Karjakin play as white?
75% 1. d4
25% 1. c4/1.Nf3
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Old 11-22-2016, 03:19 AM   #75
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Re: 2016 WCC Discussion Thread

Wtf magnus lost this game. I switched off after kara returned a blunder because of perpetual check which even me the patzer could see.
Man I said it before itt it felt a bit like kaspy kramnik but magnus was getting tilted at himself.
Dam it's going to be hard to turn it around now.

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