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09-16-2015 , 10:39 AM

#26

Rei Ayanami

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Aronian joins Gelfand in the oral sex club. And Wei Yi needs a win in his last rapid game.

Last edited by Rei Ayanami; 09-16-2015 at 10:59 AM.

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09-16-2015 , 10:56 AM

#27

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

These Wei Yi vs. Vovk games have been amazing, both the long rapid and short rapid ones. Can't wait for the blitz!

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09-16-2015 , 10:59 AM

#28

The Yugoslavian

STTF HUC II Winner

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 25,040

Wei Yi did such a great job of complicating things at just the right moment. I think the kid's gonna get through.

What's going on in that Adams match, each game is a win! Maybe he should just try to draw a game then win the other one to get through.

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09-16-2015 , 11:21 AM

#29

The Yugoslavian

STTF HUC II Winner

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 25,040

Wei Yi is such a stud.

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09-16-2015 , 11:47 AM

#30

Golfdish

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,838

weeeeeeeeeeeeei

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09-16-2015 , 11:50 AM

#31

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

Not only is Wei through, but thanks to Aronian's upset loss Wei is a favorite next round too! 68% to advance to round 4, and now up to 3.6% to reach the final!

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09-16-2015 , 12:32 PM

#32

Army Eye

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Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 2,534

Now it's getting really good. Almost every Round 3 match is star vs. star.

Nakamura needs to push in the classical games, he's not much more than 50/50 against fellow blitz god Nepomniachtchi in a tiebreak

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09-16-2015 , 01:28 PM

#33

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Army Eye

Definitely better than 50/50 (61 and 56 rating points higher in rapid and blitz, respectively), probably around 2:1 edge in potential tie breaks.

That's significantly less than his 111 point classical rating edge, though, so I agree he's justified in pushing in classical.

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09-16-2015 , 02:06 PM

#34

The Yugoslavian

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Naka should just push classical b/c it turns out he's really good at it now, even though after every classical tournament game he says "well ok, I can play a lot better, but that wasn't a complete disaster."

I guess he wants to play it safe and lower variance by being patient, knowing he still has a big edge in rapid/blitz, but, except for only a few opponents it seems like he can push harder with white in the classical games.

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09-16-2015 , 09:37 PM

#35

Rei Ayanami

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BobJoeJim

The 12 total blitz/rapid events they have between them is inconclusive and I think Naka's edge in the quick games is almost certainly quite a bit bigger than 60 pts.

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09-16-2015 , 10:14 PM

#36

The Yugoslavian

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If i'm #3 in the world at classical chess I'm going to go gunning for blood right from the start and then take 2 days off to practice my Italian and think of new ways to try and seem like I'm not afraid of Carlsen.

He has the luxury of playing it safe classically but he's not gonna be world champ without taking it to the chumps like Carlsen would do.

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09-17-2015 , 03:10 PM

#37

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

Wei Yi watch: drawing with black is a good enough first game result in this format. He's up to a new high of 4.0% to reach the finals now. 24-1, let's go!

Last edited by BobJoeJim; 09-17-2015 at 06:32 PM.

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09-17-2015 , 03:32 PM

#38

Army Eye

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Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 2,534

The rapid and blitz ratings are still based on but a handful of events. I don't discount them but you at least have to assume a higher standard deviation in those numbers. Nepo is a BEAST in fast time controls. A tiebreak with him is not the safe route for any player.

How about Lu Shanglei holding Topalov with black today? If he can make a draw tomorrow with white tomorrow he has good chances in the tiebreaks.

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09-17-2015 , 03:46 PM

#39

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Army Eye

Topalov's odds of reaching the final dropped 3% on the draw. He's still an 85% favorite to win the round though.

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09-17-2015 , 03:48 PM

#40

coon74

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It looks like Grischuk is the next beast to go down - he's lost his White game to Eljanov*, who's having a great tourney so far. The loss has put Alexander on the 13th position of the live rating list, behind MVL.

* It was an amazing comedy of mistakes, btw. Alex should have pushed the pawn to a7 earlier; the reason why he couldn't queen at move 43 was the threat of Qf1+ with mate.

Last edited by coon74; 09-17-2015 at 03:57 PM.

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09-17-2015 , 03:52 PM

#41

Rei Ayanami

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Grischuk has always struck me as more highly rated than he should be at 2780+, because he's just anemic as hell sometimes with the weird time management and the spiritless draws, but then he wins games against Carlsen and Caruana. Whatever.

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09-17-2015 , 04:12 PM

#42

Army Eye

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Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 2,534

I tend to agree on Grischuk. He did manage to bloat up his rating for a while but he never really impresses in supertournaments, never mind win them. I don't expect him to be a top 10 guy much in the future.

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09-17-2015 , 04:45 PM

#43

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

Grischuk is unlikely to be the only top player to go down. He's the only top eight seed to currently be an underdog in this round, but there's an 81% chance that at least one other top eight seed will lose as well. I wouldn't even be shocked if Grischuk and two others are eliminated two days from now. Those top eight seeds have just a 560% combined equity in fourth round berths, even though everyone but Grischuk is individually a favorite right now.

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09-17-2015 , 06:09 PM

#44

A-Rod's Cousin

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Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 37,130

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobJoeJim

He's up to a new high of 4.0% to reach the finals now. 25-1, let's go!

25-1 is a good price if he's 4%

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09-17-2015 , 06:12 PM

#45

AngerPush

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Yeah, man. 4% = 24-1

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09-17-2015 , 06:36 PM

#46

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

My mind said "one in 25" and my fingers typed "25-1". Bad fingers, no biscuit. Thanks for the correction guys!

Also, AngerPush, nice to see you over here in the chess forum

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09-18-2015 , 04:31 AM

#47

Shandrax

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Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 4,818

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami

What is your opinion on Giri?

Leko was a child prodigy at one point also.

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09-18-2015 , 09:53 AM

#48

Rei Ayanami

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I don't really have much of one. Seems like a cool guy. How about you?

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09-18-2015 , 10:28 AM

#49

The Yugoslavian

STTF HUC II Winner

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 25,040

My opinion on Giri is that he is even better at wife-ing than chessing. Which really is ridiculous.

At the same time, it just seems he draws, draws, draws. Except today. Nicely done Mr. Sopiko!

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09-18-2015 , 10:48 AM

#50

Rei Ayanami

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Eljanov 6-0 (+26.0) so far.

And Wei Yi has his countryman Ding Liren up next. Would be a sick upset. Wei Yi could be all like "Bro remember that time I beat you in the World Cup" when they're fussing over something at an Olympiad.

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