Tournament hosts, yes. Well, the official language refers to the tournament "organizers", but yeah, that means the hosts. I personally think that both Caruana and Nakamura are more deserving than either Grischuk or Svidler, but with the organizers being Russian I don't think it matters if Caruana is rated 2850 by the time the decision is made, he'll probably have to wait until the next cycle.

Appreciate all your work in this thread BJJ, I've been using it to keep myself and other members of my club updated

the wild card is SVIDLER

Is that your prediction, or is there breaking news that I haven't heard yet? Svidler's definitely a very likely wild card, and it wouldn't shock me if he had just been announced. If it's news, I'd love a link!

http://www.chess.com/news/svidler-is...-wildcard-3854 at least

Good enough for me, I'll go edit the OP, and now 7/8 of the field is set! We just have to wait and see which of Anand and Carlsen ends up in this event next spring, and which one is sitting back watching as the world champ.

Anand most likely won't play the Candidates
http://articles.timesofindia.indiati...-mind-champion

Anand is in!

http://www.fide.com/component/conten...ouncement.html

The pairings have been released.

Odds are here:

12 Mar. 14:00
World Chess Candidates Tournament - Khanty-Mansiysk 2014 Levon Aronian 5/4
Vladimir Kramnik 13/5
Veselin Topalov 6/1
Viswanathan Anand 8/1
Sergey Karjakin 8/1
Peter Svidler 12/1
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 16/1
Dmitry Andreikin 28/1

If I had to guess, I would say that maybe Topalov and Svidler could have value here.

I don't think Svidler has a serious chance unfortunately. I think
Topalov might be the best bet on those odds, followed by Kramnik or Andreikin.

I'm betting Aronian all day on this, and I don't much care what odds are offered.

Aronian has been in spectacular form lately, it seems, but those are pretty tough odds to back anyone at in a field like this. I might lean towards a Kramnik bet at those odds, he seems like a player who is likely to be at his best in an event like this - someone who "saves it" for the events that matter most.

There is probably no good value, too much juice.

Isn't this true of almost all sports bets?

I don't bet sports but I don't see how people make a profit at it.

Well, true of most futures bets like this (picking a winner out of a large field). Not so true for all other types of sports bets though... but that's a topic for a different sub-forum

It's only 125% and I think most of the juice is in aronian, if you made him 2-1 it would be 110%.

Anand best bet but Aronian will win so I guess not.

For those who don't want to do the math, those odds suggest (if you factor out the juice, and make the possibly questionable assumption that the juice had been evenly distributed across all participants) that each player's ACTUAL chance of winning are as follows:

Aronian: 35%
Kramnik: 22%
Topalov: 11%
Anand/Karjakin: 9%
Svidler: 6%
Mamedyarov: 5%
Andreikin: 3%

Here is how I would handicap each player's winning chances:

Aronian: 40% His great form recently speaks for itself.

Kramnik: 20% You have to like his chances given his strong performance in last year's candidates.

Topalov: 15% In the past, Topalov has had fantastic performances in really tough fields like this one. The big question mark here is if the others will try extra hard against him if he is near the top towards the end of the tournament since he is so unpopular amongst the top players generally.

Karjakin: 15% His performance in Norway last year shows that at his best he is a dangerous threat in any field.

Mamedyarov: 5% His performance in the grand prix was outstanding, but he doesn't have a ton of experience playing in a field this strong, so I don't think you can give him more than an outside shot at this point.

Anand: 2% Even though he is one of the all time greats, I don't rate his chances very highly in this event. He is one of the players who has not embraced the modern style of seeking every chance in the late middlegame and endgame. Instead, he usually goes for simplifications and a draw, and in the last few years this lack of ambition coupled with a decrease in the accuracy of his calculations gives him little chance against the younger players, in my opinion.

Svidler: 2% A very interesting player who deserves a lot of respect, but he has never in a 20 year career won a tournament of category 20 or higher, and this tournament is going to be close to category 22. It is tough to see this being his breakout event in his late 30s.

Andreikin: 1% An accomplished rapid player, but against this field 1% is probably being generous.

Aronian (playing very well now), Kramnik (new-found ability to shine in these events) are probably 60-70% to win. I'd put Karjakin as the most likely underdog to come through.

I expect some great games, though.

Can't let this thread slip from the first page!

I'm rooting for Kramnik in this one.

Magnus vs. Aronian, Kramnik or Caruana is interesting to me. Caruana probably needs another few years though. Everyone else either doesn't care anymore or probably wouldn't make for a competitive match.

(Magnus vs. Nakamura would be interesting but only for cruel/morbid reasons)

Anyone want 1-2 odds for the 2014 candidates? Say my $100 to your $200, I bet for Aronian, you can have the rest?
Willing to adjust odds or amount. up to $200 from me and as low as u want, really.

Cuz it'd be a cleanout?