I know this seems awfully premature, as we haven't even held the 2013 World Championship yet. The tournament that will be held next spring to determine a challenger for an as-yet-uncrowned champion is pretty back-burner. However the field is now set, except for the World Championship match. At this point this thread will probably mostly stay dormant until the event draws near.

I will keep this first post updated with more accurate information, as the last few details are finalized, unless someone who has earned a spot in the field proves unable to participate for some reason. What follows is the *projected* field at this time, and everything in bold is finalized already, which at this point is 7 of the 8 spots. So, as of whenever this post was last updated, here are the 8 Candidates I project to make the field, their current world rank (by live ratings) and their qualifying method:

1. Viswanathan Anand (World #9) - Loser of the 2013 World Championship Match
2. Vladimir Kramnik (World #3) - World Cup Champion
3. Dmitry Andreikin (World #41) - World Cup Runner-Up
4. Veselin Topalov (World #5) - Fide Grand Prix Champion
5. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (World #11) - Fide Grand Prix Runner-Up
6. Levon Aronian (World #2) - Highest Rated non-qualifier
7. Sergey Karjakin (World #12) - Second Highest Rated non-qualifier
8. Peter Svidler (World #10) - Wild Card



And should any of the eight players in the field prove unable to participate, their replacements will be:

FIRST ALTERNATE: Fabiano Caruana (World #6) - Third Place Finisher, FIDE Grand Prix
SECOND ALTERNATE: Teimour Radjabov (World #36) - Highest average rating (Aug'12 through July'13) not already in the field

What a fantastic thread, you must have put quite a bit of work into this. Thanks for doing it. I never know any of this stuff unless you post it, so keep up the great work. Looking forward to seeing how this thing plays out.

It'll be very interesting to see what upsets occur (particularly in the World Cup) to shake all of this up. When we assume that the favorites win the World Cup and the Wild Card goes to the top rated player, it projects a field with all 8 players being in the world top-ten. If this was the final field it would be amazing, albeit a painful disappointment to Nakamura who would be the only player in the world top-ten not involved.

Of course in reality, it won't all go chalk. Wang Hao, Dominguez, and Nakamura all still have outside chances at finishing top-two in the Grand Prix (if they win the final event outright), even without accounting for whatever shakeups the last 5 rounds of Beijing cause. And the World Cup has 128 entrants; assuming the top two rated players both make the final is silly (technically it's the most likely result, if you trust the ELO system, but it's still a very UNLIKELY result). And the wild card is just that. Right now it's all up for grabs. But still, take some time to enjoy even just the concept of this field.

Updated to include round 7 of Beijing, which had five decisive results and caused a bit of a shakeup. Another win for Mamedyarov and another loss for Topalov swapped those two players in the overall Grand Prix standings - they still occupy the top two spots, but Mamedyarov is now in first.

This is particularly relevant since neither of them play in the sixth event. There are still several players with chances to move up into the top two with a top finish in the last event, and now it's Topalov (not Mamedyarov) who would be knocked out of the Candidate's event if that happened. Four rounds left to go at Beijing, though, so plenty of room for all of that to change some more in the next week.

Edit: I had only looked at the standings, not at the actual games. It wasn't just that Mamedyarov won and Topalov lost. They played each other. Mamedyarov specifically beat Topalov to move past him in the projected Grand Prix standings. This after beating Karjakin (who at the time still led the Beijing event) yesterday. Nice two-day run for Shakhriyar.

I would think that Anand would retire. He seems to have plenty of cash as well as a multitude of adoring fans worldwide.

I hadn't considered that possibility, and it actually does make sense. I'm not sure if I believe that it's likely enough to work into a projection as loose as this one, though. If nothing else, let us call these projections a projected *invitation list*, rather than a projected field. If Anand loses his title to Carlsen this fall, then he WILL be invited to participate in the 2014 Candidate's Tournament. He may decline the invitation and retire, but that's more chaos than I want to try to account for at this time.

Interesting to think about, though. If he did retire and reject the invite, who would take his spot? Probably they'd just add a second wild card spot, which with the way I'm projecting the field at this time would go to Nakamura, and give us the exact perfect field from a ratings perspective, which is to say #2 through #9 in the world among active players competing for the right to challenge the world #1. Again, though, we all know this won't actually go chalk in the end

1. I'm ready to assume Carlsen wins

2. Great list. Not a whole lot of possibilities for the last few spots, but plenty of pressure on a few folks.

3. Although I hate picking favorites, I'm ready to pick Aronian as next challenger. Only partly because that's how I'll be rooting. Maybe I'm jumping ahead a little though.

1. I can see Anand doing an occasional tournament and maybe the Olympiad but not another candidate tournament.

2. I can see GM Wang Hao getting the spot if he can stop his mini rating slide. Fide has seen how chess is in India after Anand. China is another market waiting to be tapped.

3. Dominguez from Cuba would be interesting.

4. Alas it may be Nakamura that would benefit from Anand retiring in this format....

Whether rating or regional interest takes precedence in naming a replacement for Anand (should he decline a Candidate's invite) may depend on the rest of the field. If it goes all chalk, and they have a chance to have 8 of the ten highest rated players in the world gathered together, and claim "strongest Candidate's Tournament ever" then the wild cards probably go to top rated players to make that happen. Which by the current ratings would be good news for Nakamura, though of course ratings fluctuate and that decision would be 6-8 months out from now.

If a few lower rated players squeeze their way in, say in the World Cup, and the "perfect field" is already busted, then their most likely to go for regional appeal, and Wang Hao is a great option, as long as his rating is acceptable. Right now he's down to 16th in the live ratings, but top-15 would probably be good enough to justify an invite. If there were already one or two other not-top-ten players in the field, that is.

Of course it could go the other way - the more not-top-ten players ARE already in the field, the more top-ten players you'd have to bypass to pick a lower rated Wang Hao, and "but he's Chinese" might not be a good enough argument. Huh, I don't know, there are multiple valid perspectives on how to handle it. Just taking the highest rated guys would be safest, politically. Noone can really criticize the choice if you just say "we want the best players in the world, since the winner of this event gets to compete for the world championship". I'll continue using pure ratings to project wild cards. For now.

Edit: And while I'd personally love to see Dominguez make it (I was captivated by his surprise win at Thessaloniki, and the massive rise up the ratings list it caused), I doubt there's any argument for him over Nakamura, unless he can get his rating above Hikaru's. They're both "from the Americas", and Cuba probably has less ability to generate regional interest than the USA, Capablanca comparisons notwithstanding. Of course if he picks up another outright win in the last Grand Prix event, that would get him to 375 points, which would tie him for second as the standings are now. Couple it with Mamedyarov faltering in the last three rounds at Beijing, and he's still got a mathematical shot at just earning a spot and putting any debate to rest. Plus, a win at that event would definitely get his rating into the top-ten range.

Also, Karjakin won his first three games in Beijing. Now, after round eight, he's back at 50% after his third loss in five games, and his live rating is actually DOWN 2.2 points from the event as a whole. Why does this belong in the 2014 Candidate's thread? Because his loss today was to Topalov, and it moved Topalov out of the "tied for sixth" group in Beijing and into the "tied for third" group, a standings move which is worth a whole bunch of Grand Prix points, and Topalov is back into first place in the Grand Prix standings, with Mamedyarov now second. And quite frankly, I think it's almost a lock that if things finished where they are, Mamedyarov is on the outside looking in, as his score after this event is his final score, and there's a LOT of people with a chance to pass him by if they win the sixth event. Someone has to win it, and the odds are good that it'll be one of the six players who would pass him if they did. Of course 15 extra points would help make his lead less surmountable. Another win, to break his tie with Grischuk and get him into a clear first would be big news.

Nakamura suffers from Moro disease.....

Interesting and offbeat dynamic chess makes for interesting games but not for consistent tourney champions....

nakamura would have to work so hard in the candidates tournament that I cant see him keeping the pace for the entire tourney.

The recent trend of players going on winning streaks early in Big tourneys and falling back makes me think that Topo's result against Kramnnik all that more impressive in their match. He must have expended so much energy against Vladamir to keep that level of dynamic chess up...

Topalov is in via winning the FIDE Grand Prix. Mamadyarov looks solid, but either Grishuk or Caruana could pass him with a clear first in the final tournament.

Huge HUGE final round win from Topalov. It took him from a middle of the pack finish (that would have left him second in the Grand Prix standings) up to a two-way tie for second, which was good enough to clinch first place in the Grand Prix overall. Very clutch result. Analyst's analysis above matches mine - Mamedyarov set the second place bar high enough that Grischuk and Caruana are the only ones with hope. Everyone else is mathematically eliminated from qualifying via the Grand Prix, and either of them can only steal second place if they win the final event outright (no ties).

Edit: I suppose the one possible complication would be if Mamedyarov finishes top-two in the World Cup (which concludes before the last Grand Prix event, and thus I believe takes precedence as a qualifying method), and then also ends up top-two in the final Grand Prix standings. I don't know for sure what the rules are, there, but if I had written it, the rule would be to take #3 from the Grand Prix. Many players could still climb to third (with Mamedyarov second), if they win outright, including Karjakin, Wang Hao, Dominguez, and Nakamura. I'll have to research if that's really how that rule works - so there may be a few people who are technically still alive to qualify for the Candidate's via Grand Prix if Mamedyarov wins the World Cup? Not sure, but that would be both weird, and kind of cool Of course if Topalov was participating in the World Cup, that would add to the potential intrigue (if that rule is what I speculate), but he's not. So he's in via winning the Grand Prix. Period.

Edit 2: Confirmed. "The two (2) top players from the FIDE Grand-Prix 2012/2013 qualify to participate. In case any of the two top winners of the FIDE Grand-Prix qualify from [losing the 2013 World Championship Match] or [Finishing top two in the World Cup] above, then the qualification spot(s) are given to the next player(s) in the final standings of the Grand-Prix." So *pending the World Cup* everyone except Mamedyarov, Crischuk, and Caruana is eliminated from qualifying via the Grand Prix. But IF Mamedyarov finishes top two in the World Cup, it re-opens the Grand Prix door to some other players. I just became a big Mamedyarov fan - GO CHAOS!!!

Oh hey! Digging through the official rules, I found something relevant to prior discussions:

So if Anand chooses to decline an invitation, as we were speculating about, his replacement would be the Grand Prix third place finisher. So even if Mamedyarov doesn't qualify in the World Cup, clear first in the final event - for third in the overall standings - would have potentially major value to players like Naka and Dominguez who are mathematically eliminated from the top two. It would earn them the first alternate spot.

This could give some of the above players (well, one player TBD) an incentive to drop a late-round game to Mamedyarov.

I can't quite figure out which player you're talking about. If it's any of the people actively fighting to qualify, and they'd made it to a "late-round" game in the World Cup, I imagine they'd just try to beat Mamedyarov and qualify directly via the World Cup, rather than drop a game, and hope Mamedyarov gets to the top two, just so that they can qualify *if* they finish clear first at the last Grand Prix leg. So you must be talking about someone who's either already in (but Carlsen, Anand, and Topalov all declined to participate in the World Cup, so this would have to be either Kramnik or Karjakin, who will qualify by rating if they don't get in some other way), or else someone who isn't themselves in contention for the Candidate's, but has a dog in the fight? So maybe a countryman of one of the contenders for third?

I can't figure out who you're saying might collude - two of the four potential benefactors of a Mamedyarov win are Russian - but one of them is in by rating, and one is 4th in the world and likely to get the wild card spot. And Kramnik doesn't seem likely to help them out. Do you think Kamsky might drop a game to Mamedyarov to keep Nakamura alive? Or Ding Liren (if he made a nice run) might drop a game to keep Wang Hao alive?

The World Cup begins in four days, so I figure it's time to update the projections. The big change is that after a disastrous Dortmund, Caruana is no longer the second highest live-rated participant in the World Cup, so I now project Aronian and Kramnik to qualify via World Cup finishes. This is a huge shift, because if it actually shakes out that way then it means that by average rating, the two qualifiers would be Karjakin and Radjabov (yeah, Radjabov really still does have a chance to qualify by rating). This would still leave Grischuk as the wild card (assuming they just take the highest live rating), and Caruana would not be part of the Candidate's Tournament.

Of course it's possible Radjabov would not accept (perhaps with "encouragement") a bid, and that Caruana still gets in - though technically the replacement would be whoever finishes 3rd in the Grand Prix, which may or may not actually be Caruana.

Obviously these are just-for-fun way-too-early projections, and the World Cup probably won't go all chalk, and we'll have a much better idea of what will actually happen in a few weeks when the World Cup is over. It's amusing to me, though, that by the rigid live-ratings-based projection formulas I'm using until OTB results exist, Caruana appears to have played himself out of a 2014 Candidate's berth just by dropping from 3rd to 5th in the live ratings, after Dortmund. Of course I hope the next couple months shape up in a way that gets him back into the projections, I certainly do think he deserves it. Time will tell, as these shift away from assumed projections and toward confirmed results.

Radjabov hwaitinggggggg.


90 day countdown to carlsen vs anand!!!

With Aronian losing today, I can no longer in good conscience project him to finish top-two in the World Cup, so I now have Kramnik and Nakamura earning those two spots (though projecting winners is still pretty silly, it's still way too early in this event to really figure out a top two). That obviously shifts other stuff around, so update!

Naka is playing really well, hope he makes it, lol USA and all.

So upon further analysis of the World Cup brackets, picking Kramnik and Nakamura to be the two qualifiers was not my finest moment. They're on the same side of the bracket, and would have to face each other before either could reach the final, so they can't possibly both reach the final and earn this spot.

With round three completed, I did some more detailed math, projecting the entire rest of the tournament out (using the laughable assumption that the "expected result" you get when you compare ELO ratings is exactly what the odds are of each player winning any specific mini-match.) Ignoring that my method for putting odds on any given mini-match is rather suspect, this is otherwise a 100% probabilistic model - it fully accounts for brackets, and factors in the respective odds of each possible matchup as it predicts each player's odds of advancing in a given round. And it uses live ratings, not published ratings, to theoretically represent current playing strength as well as possible, and to at least give some credence to results so far in the event. So here are my predicted odds for each of the 16 players remaining in the field (split into two groups reflecting which half of the bracket they're in):

As you can see, Kramnik is the most likely champion at this point, and his most likely opponent in the finals is Karjakin, so until round four blows everything up, those two are my temporarily projected finalists (and Candidates qualifiers).

Oh yeah, and as a sidenote, now that Aronian has been eliminated from the World Cup, his qualifying method is now guaranteed to be ratings - so he has gone bold. Kramnik is also guaranteed a spot in the Candidates, since if he doesn't make the World Cup final, he'll also get in on rating, but he's not bold yet because his qualifying *method* remains uncertain at this time.

Part of me is rooting for Radjabov to make the Candidates. The absurdity of it would be something to see.

So with Karjakin's elimination from the World Cup today, Radjabov is now eliminated* from contention for the Candidates Tournament. Karjakin remains in the projected field for now, by rating, but to hold that spot he is relying on Kramnik qualifying via the World Cup. If one of Caruana, Vachier-Lagrave, or Korobov beats Kramnik before the final, then Kramnik gets the second ratings spot, and Karjakin falls out of the field.

Meanwhile, Karjakin's fall also leaves Peter Svidler as the highest live rated player on the other side of the bracket, so Svidler cracks the projected field for the first time. Andreikin will have something to say about that starting tomorrow, though, and if Svidler gets past him, then he still has Kamsky and either Tomashevsky or Morozevich to deal with before he locks up a Candidates spot.

*Unless he somehow earns a wild card berth. Who knows, maybe he'll score 11/11 in a major tournament this fall, regain 60 ELO points, and put himself in contention for that wild card. Right now, though, we're calling him eliminated.

damn you karjakin!

pretty solid field remaining in the world cup at least. lets go caruana and kamsky!