Huge HUGE final round win from Topalov. It took him from a middle of the pack finish (that would have left him second in the Grand Prix standings) up to a two-way tie for second, which was good enough to clinch first place in the Grand Prix overall. Very clutch result. Analyst's analysis above matches mine - Mamedyarov set the second place bar high enough that Grischuk and Caruana are the only ones with hope. Everyone else is mathematically eliminated from qualifying via the Grand Prix, and either of them can only steal second place if they win the final event outright (no ties).
Edit: I suppose the one possible complication would be if Mamedyarov finishes top-two in the World Cup (which concludes before the last Grand Prix event, and thus I believe takes precedence as a qualifying method), and then also ends up top-two in the final Grand Prix standings. I don't know for sure what the rules are, there, but if I had written it, the rule would be to take #3 from the Grand Prix. Many players could still climb to third (with Mamedyarov second), if they win outright, including Karjakin, Wang Hao, Dominguez, and Nakamura. I'll have to research if that's really how that rule works - so there may be a few people who are technically still alive to qualify for the Candidate's via Grand Prix if Mamedyarov wins the World Cup? Not sure, but that would be both weird, and kind of cool
Of course if Topalov was participating in the World Cup, that would add to the potential intrigue (if that rule is what I speculate), but he's not. So he's in via winning the Grand Prix. Period.
Edit 2: Confirmed. "The two (2) top players from the FIDE Grand-Prix 2012/2013 qualify to participate. In case any of the two top winners of the FIDE Grand-Prix qualify from [losing the 2013 World Championship Match] or [Finishing top two in the World Cup] above, then the qualification spot(s) are given to the next player(s) in the final standings of the Grand-Prix." So *pending the World Cup* everyone except Mamedyarov, Crischuk, and Caruana is eliminated from qualifying via the Grand Prix. But IF Mamedyarov finishes top two in the World Cup, it re-opens the Grand Prix door to some other players. I just became a big Mamedyarov fan - GO CHAOS!!!
Last edited by BobJoeJim; 07-16-2013 at 11:29 AM.
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