Looks like another exciting day of games today. 45 minutes in and the games are all looking pretty wacky.

Short's providing good commentary at http://london2013.fide.com/livegames...deo/index.html

Why does everyone walk around the place when its their turn? I am sure they can visualize the position but it has to be easier even for them looking at the board?

It's during the opponent's move not your own. The goal is to give your brain a little rest before getting back to deep thought

whine whine: The press conference layout sucks, if I was planning an event of this scale I would put some more effort than the current setup of having the players ogle at a laptop from the sides and Karlovich sitting and looking confused/glancing around in the middle

I use crestbook.com which is Sergey Shipov's site. It turns out that his comments are also available in English translation at http://candidates2013.com/rounds/rou...ification.html

Grischuk seems to be in serious trouble against Magnus

Just tuned in to the games, y'all weren't kidding. Some really interesting stuff today.

Agree completely with this. Black has some really inactive pieces and lots of weaknesses, not a good combo against Magnus.

Short is finding some dynamic chances for Grischuk now, still suspicious about his position though

Gelfand and Ivanchuk seem to be trying to out-mismanage each other on time.

Gelfand's pieces look like garbage right now. All of them on the kingside doing nothing at all.

This is always a tough call btw the 2. Going back to the 91 Candidates, I always give Chukky the edge to mismanage his clock the best.

Next three rounds for Kramnik are critical: White against Aronian and Ivanchuk, and then Black against Gelfand. A win against Aronian would be huge of course (and also make Carlsen's day), but really it's showing that he can join the race by beating the tail-enders.

Carlsen has black against Ivanchuk tomorrow...hard to see that ending other than 0-1 given both of their play thus far.

hey just a general question. I don't often follow chess tournaments but find the magnus carlsen/levon aronian storylines interesting. I was wondering if there are any tips on how I can increase my enjoyment of watching the candidates matches as a noob?

Finding someone to root for makes most sporting events better, so you're already ahead of the game on that one.

Live feeds with commentary are also good (I haven't been watching games live, although people mentioned a few sites above to check out).

I've been enjoying the commentary so far on www.chessbomb.com. It's free, no need to register, and they'll usually have a couple of GM/IM level commentators on the more important games. It's great to follow.

I'm curious to see how Svidler does. His play and prep so far both seem exceptional. He, like Kramnik, hasn't gotten his shot at Gelfand/Chukky either both who I expect are likely to get even weaker as the event goes on. Ivanchuk's unpredictability after losses is well known and Gelfand's extreme defensiveness regarding the criticism levied against him during his match against Anand leads me to believe he's probably not a personality type that's going to keep a level head in an event where they keep getting beat down.

Yes, Svidler and Kramnik have similar games coming up in the next three (two whites, playing one 2800 and both players at 1/4).

With his win today, Carlsen is obviously back in the driver's seat, firmer than ever. He's still not solely in the lead, but his tournament win equity is the highest it's been yet. Aronian is still #2, but he gave back most of what he had previously gained by only drawing Svidler today. Prior to this round, I had said Aronian had a 31.5% chance to win the tourney and a 33.5% chance to beat Svidler. The thing is, there was a lot of overlap between those two scenarios, and the draw combined with Carlsen's win hurt his chances badly.

Kramnik remains third, but he's going to have to start winning a few games instead of just drawing everything in sight if he wants to get back into contention. The flip side of Aronian not beating Svidler is that Svidler is performing well above expectation - holding a draw today was huge for his chances of finishing in the top half of the field, and he's now 4th in the predicted final standings having passed Radjabov. Not a serious contender to win it all though, unless he can string together a win or two, but as DiR mentioned his prep has been exceptional so far, and even though he's theoretically (by rating) one of the "bottom" players in the field he hasn't played like it, and who knows if he can get a win against one of those other "bottom" players? That, combined with a lot of help, and he still could make a move.

Here are the full odds as things stand at the moment:

PLAYER - Odds of winning - Expected score:
Carlsen - 72.5% - 9.47
Aronian - 19.6% - 8.39
Kramnik - 3.7% - 7.42
Svidler - 2.0% - 7.01
Radjabov - 1.9% - 6.95
Grischuk - 0.3% - 6.27
Ivanchuk - 0.04% - 5.32
Gelfand - 0.02% - 5.17

And round five individual game odds (scores from white's perspective):

Ivanchuk (W) vs. Carlsen (B)
+8.3% =58% -33.7%

Svidler (W) vs. Gelfand (B)
+26.2% =64.6% -9.2%

Kramnik (W) vs. Aronian (B)
+23.8% =61.6% -14.6%

Grischuk (W) vs. Radjabov (B)
+15.2% =68.8% -16.1% (lol rounding)

Thanks for keeping up the odds BJJ - it really is interesting. I'd definitely happily throw down some $ on Svidler at 50:1!

Don't look at me to book that

The raw emotionless math, that assumes Svidler's rating is a true representation of how he should play in the remaining 10 rounds, says he's 2% to win it all, but my human evaluation is that he showed up to this tournament better prepared than most of the field, and is playing above his rating - and I expect it to continue. He's probably closer to a 3% shot, in my personal opinion, maybe 3.5%, but whether or not he can manage a win tomorrow will be very telling. If he can't beat Gelfand with white then I think it becomes pretty safe to say that he's not going to win this event. I'm definitely rooting for him to get that win, though, and see how high he can push himself. I'm curious whether a win tomorrow would be enough to move him in front of Kramnik and into third place in the projected finishes? It would probably be close - assuming Kramnik draws again.

Now this is a 5 star post.

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Gelfand doesn't belong in this event.

Really getting sick of people killing Gelfand, he DOES belong in the event because he won the tournament last yr. If we're just going to say you only belong on the event based on your strength why do we play events, should just crown Carlsen and be done with it. It's a game, there should be drama, if weaker players never get rewarded for their upending's of stronger players what's the point?

Now if your complaint is people getting invited to events just because they pee sitting down, that's a different matter.

Yeah, we've really got to do something about all these women getting free passes into the candidates tournaments.