Quote:
Originally Posted by airwave16
there's got to be a more accurate/less intensive way of predicting than a monte carlo, doesn't there? not trying to knock your work, which is well done, but i've always been a little perplexed by monte carlos.
Less computer intensive, yes, in that once it was properly set up it would produce a more accurate result in a much quicker fashion. It would be feasible to do a full probabilistic breakdown that would be better in every way - once it was set up.
It would be much more complicated to program initially, though. The appeal of Monte Carlos is that it took me about 2 hours total to write the code for a few subroutines. Basically it's just write a formula to set odds for a single game based on whatever factors, then nest that formula in a bunch of loops to simulate a full tournament. Super simple coding. Now I can just click the start button, let it run in the background while I do other stuff, and see the results when it's done.
So basically I like Monte Carlos because I'm lazy. That's also why I program in Excel VBA, lol, I can use a worksheet to store numbers so that I don't have to learn how to work with arrays. Sure they're much more efficient, but I'd rather do a little less work on my end, even if it means the computer has to do much MORE work on its end, and take three times as long