Hey, i've been thinking about a way which you can know roughly when to accept a double vs an optimum opponent (snowie, jellyfish, robertie etc) and need some thoughts on the logic of it:

Basically, I was thinking that these opponents double when the equity position converges with 75%, excluding match equity considerations. Therefore, if your opponent offers you a double AND either you or your opponent's last roll did not make your situation substantially worse, you can assume that your equity situation has not changed by much (eg. escaping back checkers, hitting your blots, setting up 5 blocks/primes etc). Hence by accepting the double, you can't be making too much of an error by accepting (as the last throw won't have pushed you by too much over the 25% min threshold) and if you are not familiar with the general pass/accept thresholds for a given situation, this might be able to help with you decision. I can't be bothered to trial and error a particular set of situations but hopefully you get the idea.



Generalised:

In the event that:

A) you are vs a good, non adjusting opponent

AND

B) your situation has not detiorated substantially since your opponent last had the opportunity to double you

Accepting his double will not be a terribly bad play.


Any of this make sense or am I missing something...

This is a great method against the bots.

It works reasonably well against a good human player, but can't entirely be trusted as sometimes a human will just blank out and miss a strong double, then look at the position a little differently the next turn and see a feature that he missed before.