You're still down 18 after the roll. I'm just breaking the 8

If I had a good move with the 2, I might take a chance and split my back men. As it is, there is too great a chance of being blitzed out.

On the other hand, we need some luck to come back. Either we can go for the slow luck, and play something like 13/11 13/9 and hope to get some more checkers for the back game, or maybe hope to get lucky more quickly with 8/2. We would be looking to get hit, come in right away, and hit back and have him dance long enough to move our back men up or out. Is that too much of a parlay?

What about 8/6 8/4? A waiting move. It doesn't really help us make our board, and probably hurts our timing in a back game. It won't impede white completing his prime. It does mean we have fewer checkers to race home to avoid a gammon, and it lets us wait for white to get into trouble.

8/2 looks so pretty to me, but taking the checkers off the 13 also gives us a chance at the lucky quick parlay.

Maybe the match score should be more of a factor. Should we just play to minimize the gammons? Or should we be taking a chance to play for a win (or gammon)? If we were 3-4, playing "safe" might be best.

I choose 13/11 13/9.

Now show me why I'm wrong.