The bots tell me that attacking with 11/2* is much worse just running from the 18-point (18/14, 18/13).

Why is this? It seems like all the signs are pointing to attack:
- I am behind in the race.
- I have more points in my board.
- I have an advanced anchor.
- I have more back checkers.

Some comments:

1. This doesn't seem to be any peculiarity of the roll 5-4; change the roll to 6-5 and it's still better to run from the 18-point than to attack with 8/2* 11/6.

2. I thought maybe this is a case of "5-4 is a good opportunity to move both 18-point checkers past White's checkers" but this doesn't seem to be the case. If you move all of White's checkers (except the one in your home board) into his home board (stacking them on the same three points), the attacking play is still wrong.

My guess is for two reasons: 1. The 3 checkers in black's outer board aren't enough to close her inner board, and 2. Without the four point covered, allowing white to enter upon it or hit upon re entry would be much worse for black, as white now has less of a prime to navigate and less threats to hit.

I bet if you moved the checkers from the 8 to the 4, the attacking play would win.

Without his 6-point or 7-point, White has a lot of trouble coming home. Set up the position after Black plays 15 and 14 and look at how White's rolls play. Many rolls leave new blots and self-destruct.