Quote:
Originally Posted by primer
White - Pips 136 (-21)
Black - Pips 157 (+21)
Black to Play 5-4
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XG says the correct move by far is 24/20 8/3. I rejected this as will as 24/15 because I didn't want to leave 2 blots, much less 3 as targets for a blitz. I played the full roll on my side of the board which is a blunder. What is the idea I'm missing here?
Playing on your side looks wrong because you really want to be thinking about this position long-term. You would really, really hate to have your three checkers stuck deep. So you need to do *something* to advance them.
So that would advocate for 24/20. From here, you need to figure out how to play the 5. You really have 20/15 and 8/3 as your two options.
20/15 is a running play, but you're behind and running is less appealing. 8/3 is a long-term move to try to build another inner point while also giving you the possibility of building an advanced anchor. So for those reasons, 8/3 is probably the better move.
It can be difficult to weigh the relative risks of different moves. Yes, you feel the risk of an incoming blitz. But it's not as big as you think it is. If he points on your head right now, you're still a huge favorite to enter, and you're reasonably likely to be able to build an anchor (likely an advanced one). So you're not really putting quite as much at risk. And the gain of getting the 20-point anchor is HUGE. So there's an upside there that's much bigger than it may initially feel.