XG says the correct move by far is 24/20 8/3. I rejected this as will as 24/15 because I didn't want to leave 2 blots, much less 3 as targets for a blitz. I played the full roll on my side of the board which is a blunder. What is the idea I'm missing here?

Playing on your side looks wrong because you really want to be thinking about this position long-term. You would really, really hate to have your three checkers stuck deep. So you need to do *something* to advance them.

So that would advocate for 24/20. From here, you need to figure out how to play the 5. You really have 20/15 and 8/3 as your two options.

20/15 is a running play, but you're behind and running is less appealing. 8/3 is a long-term move to try to build another inner point while also giving you the possibility of building an advanced anchor. So for those reasons, 8/3 is probably the better move.

It can be difficult to weigh the relative risks of different moves. Yes, you feel the risk of an incoming blitz. But it's not as big as you think it is. If he points on your head right now, you're still a huge favorite to enter, and you're reasonably likely to be able to build an anchor (likely an advanced one). So you're not really putting quite as much at risk. And the gain of getting the 20-point anchor is HUGE. So there's an upside there that's much bigger than it may initially feel.

Great analysis Aaron. Thanks!

Another way to look at this is to ask a couple of questions.

Question (1): "What's my biggest liability in this position?" Clearly, it's your three back checkers, widely separated from your other checkers.

Question (2): "If it's too dangerous to split now, when will it be better?" White is well-placed to make new points, so imagine you play the whole roll on your side of the board and now White makes an inner point. Will you want to split then, when it's even more dangerous than now? And if you don't split, are you willing to play an ace-point game?

Here's the conclusion: You desperately need to move your back checkers, and it will only get more dangerous as time goes on. So split now.

BTW, it's harder than you think to create a full blitz out of a one-point board. Set up the position after 24/20 8/3 and play it out a few times. Keep track of how often White is actually able to blitz you before you make an advanced anchor. The result may surprise you.

Thanks, Bill! Your approach with question 2 is something I definitely need to think about more often, i.e., how is this situation likely to evolve?

I've been doing a lot of reading and not so much playing, so my instincts for how a position will develop need work. Case in point is this position. I played it out 15 times (actually watched XG play both sides) and was indeed quite surprised.